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Withdrawals are queued and will be processed in order once maintenance completes, expected by 2026-10-01 06:40 UTC. Deposits and trading are not affected. There has been no security incident and no user funds are at risk.\nMaintenance started, 2026-10-01 04:40 UTC\nScheduled maintenance has begun. Withdrawals may be delayed for up to two hours while we migrate our hot-wallet infrastructure.\nMaintenance was announced on 2026-09-30 03:35 UTC. See announcements .","error":null},{"ref":"E2","name":"Project X announcements: Project X announcements","url":"https://hunch-agent.up.railway.app/demo/projectx/announcements","kind":"official","ok":true,"excerpt":"Project X announcements\nScheduled maintenance: hot-wallet migration\nPosted 2026-09-30 03:35 UTC by the Project X team\nOn 2026-10-01 04:40 UTC we will migrate our hot wallets to new infrastructure. Deposits and trading are unaffected. Withdrawals requested during the window will be queued for up to two hours and processed in order afterwards.\nWe will never ask you to move your funds or send them anywhere. 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Given the rapid spread (9 mentions in 15 min) and presence of inflammatory unverified claims like 'get your funds out while you still can,' an alert to the operator is warranted so a public clarification pointing to the official status/announcement pages can be considered, even though escalation is not justified since no real security harm is substantiated."},"acceptance":{"accepted":true,"checks":[{"label":"Fits the schema","ok":true,"detail":"parsed and validated"},{"label":"Origin is a real post","ok":true,"detail":"origin P1"},{"label":"Every citation exists","ok":true,"detail":"4 citations, all real"},{"label":"Two independent evidence items","ok":true,"detail":"3 distinct sources cited (11 available)"},{"label":"Uncertainty stated","ok":true,"detail":"confidence 0.55, 3 unknowns"},{"label":"Status matches evidence","ok":true,"detail":"partially_supported with 2 for / 2 against"},{"label":"Confidence in range","ok":true,"detail":"0.55"}]},"alert":{"channel":"dashboard","sent":true,"detail":"Telegram not configured; shown on the dashboard"},"error":null,"demo":true},{"id":"inv_8c3305","clusterId":"sig_ba8d4b","watchId":"wat_house","claim":"Project X withdrawals not going through for me either. Pending for over an hour now.","createdAt":"2026-10-01T05:22:03.216Z","finishedAt":"2026-10-01T05:22:26.639Z","status":"complete","maxBudgetUsd":1.1,"estimateUsd":0.036679,"spentUsd":0.02775,"balanceBefore":53.974706,"balanceAfter":53.946956,"keyPrefix":"sk-orbio-6lPABl","contract":{"task":"Verify the emerging claim: \"Project X withdrawals not going through for me either. Pending for over an hour now.\"","deadlineSec":120,"successConditions":["identify the earliest known source","return at least 2 independent evidence items if available","label each source as supports / contradicts / context","state the material unknowns","return the structured artifact, citing only real posts and fetched documents"]},"trigger":{"score":0.97,"mentions":9,"uniqueSources":4,"last15":9,"prev15":0},"auctions":[{"role":"source-tracer","bids":[{"bidder":"tracer-haiku","label":"Claude Haiku 4.5","model":"anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5","bidUsd":0.004732,"worstUsd":0.007132,"reputation":0.8,"jobs":0,"eligible":true,"utility":169},{"bidder":"tracer-flash-lite","label":"Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite","model":"google/gemini-2.5-flash-lite","bidUsd":0.000437,"worstUsd":0.000593,"reputation":0.973,"jobs":41,"eligible":true,"utility":2227},{"bidder":"tracer-mistral","label":"Mistral Small 3.2","model":"mistralai/mistral-small-3.2-24b-instruct","bidUsd":0.000406,"worstUsd":0.000406,"reputation":0.533,"jobs":1,"eligible":false,"utility":null}],"winner":"tracer-flash-lite","reason":"best quality per dollar: reputation 0.97 for a $0.0004 bid"},{"role":"cross-checker","bids":[{"bidder":"checker-haiku","label":"Claude Haiku 4.5","model":"anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5","bidUsd":0.011273,"worstUsd":0.0114,"reputation":0.907,"jobs":35,"eligible":true,"utility":80},{"bidder":"checker-flash-lite","label":"Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite","model":"google/gemini-2.5-flash-lite","bidUsd":0.00099,"worstUsd":0.00099,"reputation":0.533,"jobs":1,"eligible":false,"utility":null},{"bidder":"checker-mistral","label":"Mistral Small 3.2","model":"mistralai/mistral-small-3.2-24b-instruct","bidUsd":0.000741,"worstUsd":0.000741,"reputation":0.728,"jobs":6,"eligible":false,"utility":null}],"winner":"checker-haiku","reason":"best quality per dollar: reputation 0.91 for a $0.0113 bid"},{"role":"verifier","bids":[{"bidder":"verifier-sonnet","label":"Claude Sonnet 5","model":"anthropic/claude-sonnet-5","bidUsd":0.017072,"worstUsd":0.024686,"reputation":0.99,"jobs":40,"eligible":true,"utility":58}],"winner":"verifier-sonnet","reason":"the verifier is appointed, not auctioned"}],"workers":[{"id":"source-tracer","role":"traces the origin and splits the narrative into sub-claims","bidder":"tracer-flash-lite","label":"Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite","model":"google/gemini-2.5-flash-lite","status":"done","estimateUsd":0.000437,"costUsd":0.000416,"startedAt":"2026-10-01T05:22:03.463Z","finishedAt":"2026-10-01T05:22:06.194Z","error":null,"completionTokens":778,"latencyMs":2508,"grade":{"quality":1,"notes":["named the true earliest post","100% of citations are real posts","100% of sub-claims start where they first appear"],"reputationBefore":0.973,"reputationAfter":0.974}},{"id":"cross-checker","role":"checks each sub-claim against official sources and linked pages","bidder":"checker-haiku","label":"Claude Haiku 4.5","model":"anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5","status":"done","estimateUsd":0.011273,"costUsd":0.00774,"startedAt":"2026-10-01T05:22:06.221Z","finishedAt":"2026-10-01T05:22:16.211Z","error":null,"completionTokens":1295,"latencyMs":9610,"grade":{"quality":0.909,"notes":["100% of citations are fetched documents","82% of quotes appear word for word","assessed 11 of 11 sub-claims"],"reputationBefore":0.907,"reputationAfter":0.907}},{"id":"verifier","role":"combines both reports into a calibrated finding","bidder":"verifier-sonnet","label":"Claude Sonnet 5","model":"anthropic/claude-sonnet-5","status":"done","estimateUsd":0.017072,"costUsd":0.019594,"startedAt":"2026-10-01T05:22:16.212Z","finishedAt":"2026-10-01T05:22:26.426Z","error":null,"completionTokens":908,"latencyMs":9949,"grade":{"quality":1,"notes":["7 of 7 acceptance checks passed"],"reputationBefore":0.99,"reputationAfter":0.991}}],"evidence":[{"ref":"E1","name":"Project X status page: Project X status","url":"https://hunch-agent.up.railway.app/demo/projectx/status","kind":"official","ok":true,"excerpt":"Project X system status\nTrading Operational\nDeposits Operational\nWithdrawals Degraded: scheduled maintenance\nSecurity incidents None reported\nIncident history\nUpdate, 2026-10-01 05:01 UTC\nThe hot-wallet migration is in progress. Withdrawals are queued and will be processed in order once maintenance completes, expected by 2026-10-01 06:26 UTC. Deposits and trading are not affected. There has been no security incident and no user funds are at risk.\nMaintenance started, 2026-10-01 04:26 UTC\nScheduled maintenance has begun. Withdrawals may be delayed for up to two hours while we migrate our hot-wallet infrastructure.\nMaintenance was announced on 2026-09-30 03:21 UTC. See announcements .","error":null},{"ref":"E2","name":"Project X announcements: Project X announcements","url":"https://hunch-agent.up.railway.app/demo/projectx/announcements","kind":"official","ok":true,"excerpt":"Project X announcements\nScheduled maintenance: hot-wallet migration\nPosted 2026-09-30 03:21 UTC by the Project X team\nOn 2026-10-01 04:26 UTC we will migrate our hot wallets to new infrastructure. Deposits and trading are unaffected. Withdrawals requested during the window will be queued for up to two hours and processed in order afterwards.\nWe will never ask you to move your funds or send them anywhere. Follow the status page for live updates.","error":null}],"artifact":{"claim":"Project X withdrawals are stuck/pending for extended periods (up to two hours), with some users speculating this is due to an exploit, draining of funds, or a full halt of withdrawals.","status":"partially_supported","confidence":0.55,"origin":{"ref":"P1","url":"https://hunch-agent.up.railway.app/demo/posts/f1","source":"Project X community forum (demo)","firstSeen":"2026-10-01T05:21:22.000Z"},"finding":["Withdrawals being delayed is confirmed by Project X's own status page as a known, scheduled maintenance issue (hot-wallet migration), not a malicious event.","The severe sub-claims driving virality \\u2014 exploit, drained funds, withdrawals halted, 'something very wrong' \\u2014 are explicitly contradicted by the official status page and announcements, which state no security incident and no funds at risk.","Specific user-reported durations (40 min, 1hr, 2hr) are plausible given the announced up-to-2-hour maintenance window, but none are independently verified.","No update has been posted since 05:01 UTC, so current queue status and resolution are unconfirmed."],"evidenceFor":[{"ref":"E1","url":"https://hunch-agent.up.railway.app/demo/projectx/status","source":"Project X status page: Project X status","finding":"Status page confirms withdrawals are queued and delayed due to scheduled hot-wallet migration maintenance, lasting up to two hours."},{"ref":"P1","url":"https://hunch-agent.up.railway.app/demo/posts/f1","source":"Project X community forum (demo)","finding":"Firsthand report of a withdrawal pending 40 minutes, consistent with the maintenance timeline."}],"evidenceAgainst":[{"ref":"E1","url":"https://hunch-agent.up.railway.app/demo/projectx/status","source":"Project X status page: Project X status","finding":"Status page explicitly states 'no security incident and no user funds are at risk,' and lists 'Security incidents: None reported,' contradicting exploit/drain speculation."},{"ref":"E2","url":"https://hunch-agent.up.railway.app/demo/projectx/announcements","source":"Project X announcements: Project X announcements","finding":"Official announcement explicitly warns users not to move funds elsewhere, framing this as routine maintenance rather than an emergency."}],"unknowns":["Whether the specific durations claimed by individual posters (40 min, 1hr, 2hr) are accurate or verified.","Current status of the queue and whether maintenance has concluded since the last 05:01 UTC update.","Volume of affected users and whether any withdrawals have failed outright rather than merely being delayed.","Whether support has been responsive to affected users."],"recommendedAction":"alert","rationale":"The mild claim (withdrawals pending/delayed) is supported by official sources and attributed to known maintenance, but the severe claims (exploit, drained funds, total halt) that are driving the narrative's virality and scare-based sharing (e.g., 'get your funds out while you still can') are directly contradicted by the project's own status page. This combination of partial truth plus unsubstantiated high-severity speculation warrants an alert to the operator so a public clarification can be issued to prevent panic-driven user behavior, without requiring escalation since no evidence supports an actual security breach."},"acceptance":{"accepted":true,"checks":[{"label":"Fits the schema","ok":true,"detail":"parsed and validated"},{"label":"Origin is a real post","ok":true,"detail":"origin P1"},{"label":"Every citation exists","ok":true,"detail":"4 citations, all real"},{"label":"Two independent evidence items","ok":true,"detail":"3 distinct sources cited (11 available)"},{"label":"Uncertainty stated","ok":true,"detail":"confidence 0.55, 4 unknowns"},{"label":"Status matches evidence","ok":true,"detail":"partially_supported with 2 for / 2 against"},{"label":"Confidence in range","ok":true,"detail":"0.55"}]},"alert":{"channel":"dashboard","sent":true,"detail":"Telegram not configured; shown on the dashboard"},"error":null,"demo":true},{"id":"inv_7bb249","clusterId":"sig_fde93c","watchId":"wat_house","claim":"Project X withdrawals not going through for me either. Pending for over an hour now.","createdAt":"2026-10-01T04:41:48.025Z","finishedAt":"2026-10-01T04:42:13.175Z","status":"complete","maxBudgetUsd":1.1,"estimateUsd":0.036679,"spentUsd":0.027471,"balanceBefore":54.002177,"balanceAfter":53.974706,"keyPrefix":"sk-orbio-6lPABl","contract":{"task":"Verify the emerging claim: \"Project X withdrawals not going through for me either. Pending for over an hour now.\"","deadlineSec":120,"successConditions":["identify the earliest known source","return at least 2 independent evidence items if available","label each source as supports / contradicts / context","state the material unknowns","return the structured artifact, citing only real posts and fetched documents"]},"trigger":{"score":0.97,"mentions":9,"uniqueSources":4,"last15":9,"prev15":0},"auctions":[{"role":"source-tracer","bids":[{"bidder":"tracer-haiku","label":"Claude Haiku 4.5","model":"anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5","bidUsd":0.004732,"worstUsd":0.007132,"reputation":0.8,"jobs":0,"eligible":true,"utility":169},{"bidder":"tracer-flash-lite","label":"Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite","model":"google/gemini-2.5-flash-lite","bidUsd":0.000438,"worstUsd":0.000593,"reputation":0.976,"jobs":40,"eligible":true,"utility":2228},{"bidder":"tracer-mistral","label":"Mistral Small 3.2","model":"mistralai/mistral-small-3.2-24b-instruct","bidUsd":0.000406,"worstUsd":0.000406,"reputation":0.533,"jobs":1,"eligible":false,"utility":null}],"winner":"tracer-flash-lite","reason":"best quality per dollar: reputation 0.98 for a $0.0004 bid"},{"role":"cross-checker","bids":[{"bidder":"checker-haiku","label":"Claude Haiku 4.5","model":"anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5","bidUsd":0.01127,"worstUsd":0.0114,"reputation":0.909,"jobs":34,"eligible":true,"utility":81},{"bidder":"checker-flash-lite","label":"Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite","model":"google/gemini-2.5-flash-lite","bidUsd":0.00099,"worstUsd":0.00099,"reputation":0.533,"jobs":1,"eligible":false,"utility":null},{"bidder":"checker-mistral","label":"Mistral Small 3.2","model":"mistralai/mistral-small-3.2-24b-instruct","bidUsd":0.000741,"worstUsd":0.000741,"reputation":0.728,"jobs":6,"eligible":false,"utility":null}],"winner":"checker-haiku","reason":"best quality per dollar: reputation 0.91 for a $0.0113 bid"},{"role":"verifier","bids":[{"bidder":"verifier-sonnet","label":"Claude Sonnet 5","model":"anthropic/claude-sonnet-5","bidUsd":0.017095,"worstUsd":0.024686,"reputation":0.99,"jobs":39,"eligible":true,"utility":58}],"winner":"verifier-sonnet","reason":"the verifier is appointed, not auctioned"}],"workers":[{"id":"source-tracer","role":"traces the origin and splits the narrative into sub-claims","bidder":"tracer-flash-lite","label":"Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite","model":"google/gemini-2.5-flash-lite","status":"done","estimateUsd":0.000438,"costUsd":0.000395,"startedAt":"2026-10-01T04:41:48.308Z","finishedAt":"2026-10-01T04:41:52.237Z","error":null,"completionTokens":725,"latencyMs":2456,"grade":{"quality":0.85,"notes":["named the true earliest post","100% of citations are real posts","100% of sub-claims start where they first appear","needed a retry after a cut-off or off-schema answer"],"reputationBefore":0.976,"reputationAfter":0.973},"retried":true},{"id":"cross-checker","role":"checks each sub-claim against official sources and linked pages","bidder":"checker-haiku","label":"Claude Haiku 4.5","model":"anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5","status":"done","estimateUsd":0.01127,"costUsd":0.008762,"startedAt":"2026-10-01T04:41:52.287Z","finishedAt":"2026-10-01T04:42:03.394Z","error":null,"completionTokens":1500,"latencyMs":10056,"grade":{"quality":0.833,"notes":["100% of citations are fetched documents","67% of quotes appear word for word","assessed 9 of 9 sub-claims"],"reputationBefore":0.909,"reputationAfter":0.907}},{"id":"verifier","role":"combines both reports into a calibrated finding","bidder":"verifier-sonnet","label":"Claude Sonnet 5","model":"anthropic/claude-sonnet-5","status":"done","estimateUsd":0.017095,"costUsd":0.018314,"startedAt":"2026-10-01T04:42:03.395Z","finishedAt":"2026-10-01T04:42:12.972Z","error":null,"completionTokens":746,"latencyMs":9336,"grade":{"quality":1,"notes":["7 of 7 acceptance checks passed"],"reputationBefore":0.99,"reputationAfter":0.99}}],"evidence":[{"ref":"E1","name":"Project X status page: Project X status","url":"https://hunch-agent.up.railway.app/demo/projectx/status","kind":"official","ok":true,"excerpt":"Project X system status\nTrading Operational\nDeposits Operational\nWithdrawals Degraded: scheduled maintenance\nSecurity incidents None reported\nIncident history\nUpdate, 2026-10-01 04:21 UTC\nThe hot-wallet migration is in progress. Withdrawals are queued and will be processed in order once maintenance completes, expected by 2026-10-01 05:46 UTC. Deposits and trading are not affected. There has been no security incident and no user funds are at risk.\nMaintenance started, 2026-10-01 03:46 UTC\nScheduled maintenance has begun. Withdrawals may be delayed for up to two hours while we migrate our hot-wallet infrastructure.\nMaintenance was announced on 2026-09-30 02:41 UTC. See announcements .","error":null},{"ref":"E2","name":"Project X announcements: Project X announcements","url":"https://hunch-agent.up.railway.app/demo/projectx/announcements","kind":"official","ok":true,"excerpt":"Project X announcements\nScheduled maintenance: hot-wallet migration\nPosted 2026-09-30 02:41 UTC by the Project X team\nOn 2026-10-01 03:46 UTC we will migrate our hot wallets to new infrastructure. Deposits and trading are unaffected. Withdrawals requested during the window will be queued for up to two hours and processed in order afterwards.\nWe will never ask you to move your funds or send them anywhere. Follow the status page for live updates.","error":null}],"artifact":{"claim":"Project X withdrawals are stuck/pending for over an hour (and in some reports two hours), with user speculation that this is due to an exploit or the project being drained of funds.","status":"partially_supported","confidence":0.75,"origin":{"ref":"P1","url":"https://hunch-agent.up.railway.app/demo/posts/f1","source":"Project X community forum (demo)","firstSeen":"2026-10-01T04:41:12.000Z"},"finding":["Withdrawals being delayed/pending is real and confirmed by Project X's own status page, caused by scheduled hot-wallet migration maintenance.","The severe speculation \\u2014 exploit, draining, funds at risk \\u2014 is explicitly contradicted by the official status page, which reports no security incident and no funds at risk.","Project X did announce the maintenance in advance (E2), contradicting claims that the project 'had not commented.'","The two-hour pending claim and 'growing number of users' framing are unverified by official sources."],"evidenceFor":[{"ref":"E1","url":"https://hunch-agent.up.railway.app/demo/projectx/status","source":"Project X status page: Project X status","finding":"Status page confirms withdrawals are queued/degraded due to scheduled hot-wallet migration maintenance, started 03:46 UTC, expected up to 2 hours."},{"ref":"P1","url":"https://hunch-agent.up.railway.app/demo/posts/f1","source":"Project X community forum (demo)","finding":"Earliest firsthand report of withdrawal pending 40 minutes, longer than normal 2-minute clearing time."}],"evidenceAgainst":[{"ref":"E1","url":"https://hunch-agent.up.railway.app/demo/projectx/status","source":"Project X status page: Project X status","finding":"Official status page states 'no security incident and no user funds are at risk,' contradicting exploit/drain speculation."},{"ref":"E2","url":"https://hunch-agent.up.railway.app/demo/projectx/announcements","source":"Project X announcements: Project X announcements","finding":"Project X publicly announced the maintenance ~24 hours in advance, contradicting claims of no official comment."}],"unknowns":["Whether any specific withdrawal has been pending the full two hours claimed in P9.","Actual volume/trend of social media and forum complaints beyond the sampled posts.","Whether affected users saw the advance maintenance announcement before reporting issues.","Support team response times to individual user inquiries."],"recommendedAction":"alert","rationale":"The underlying delay is confirmed and expected to resolve per the maintenance window, but the narrative has escalated into unfounded exploit/drain speculation that could cause panic or bank-run behavior; operator should push the official maintenance explanation to counter the most severe, false sub-claims while monitoring for resolution past the 05:46 UTC window."},"acceptance":{"accepted":true,"checks":[{"label":"Fits the schema","ok":true,"detail":"parsed and validated"},{"label":"Origin is a real post","ok":true,"detail":"origin P1"},{"label":"Every citation exists","ok":true,"detail":"4 citations, all real"},{"label":"Two independent evidence items","ok":true,"detail":"3 distinct sources cited (11 available)"},{"label":"Uncertainty stated","ok":true,"detail":"confidence 0.75, 4 unknowns"},{"label":"Status matches evidence","ok":true,"detail":"partially_supported with 2 for / 2 against"},{"label":"Confidence in range","ok":true,"detail":"0.75"}]},"alert":{"channel":"dashboard","sent":true,"detail":"Telegram not configured; shown on the dashboard"},"error":null,"demo":true},{"id":"inv_00caaa","clusterId":"sig_d4139b","watchId":"wat_house","claim":"Project X withdrawals not going through for me either. Pending for over an hour now.","createdAt":"2026-10-01T03:58:01.568Z","finishedAt":"2026-10-01T03:58:22.366Z","status":"complete","maxBudgetUsd":1.1,"estimateUsd":0.036679,"spentUsd":0.025136,"balanceBefore":54.036113,"balanceAfter":54.010977,"keyPrefix":"sk-orbio-6lPABl","contract":{"task":"Verify the emerging claim: \"Project X withdrawals not going through for me either. Pending for over an hour now.\"","deadlineSec":120,"successConditions":["identify the earliest known source","return at least 2 independent evidence items if available","label each source as supports / contradicts / context","state the material unknowns","return the structured artifact, citing only real posts and fetched documents"]},"trigger":{"score":0.97,"mentions":9,"uniqueSources":4,"last15":9,"prev15":0},"auctions":[{"role":"source-tracer","bids":[{"bidder":"tracer-haiku","label":"Claude Haiku 4.5","model":"anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5","bidUsd":0.004732,"worstUsd":0.007132,"reputation":0.8,"jobs":0,"eligible":true,"utility":169},{"bidder":"tracer-flash-lite","label":"Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite","model":"google/gemini-2.5-flash-lite","bidUsd":0.000438,"worstUsd":0.000593,"reputation":0.976,"jobs":39,"eligible":true,"utility":2228},{"bidder":"tracer-mistral","label":"Mistral Small 3.2","model":"mistralai/mistral-small-3.2-24b-instruct","bidUsd":0.000406,"worstUsd":0.000406,"reputation":0.533,"jobs":1,"eligible":false,"utility":null}],"winner":"tracer-flash-lite","reason":"best quality per dollar: reputation 0.98 for a $0.0004 bid"},{"role":"cross-checker","bids":[{"bidder":"checker-haiku","label":"Claude Haiku 4.5","model":"anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5","bidUsd":0.011322,"worstUsd":0.0114,"reputation":0.906,"jobs":33,"eligible":true,"utility":80},{"bidder":"checker-flash-lite","label":"Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite","model":"google/gemini-2.5-flash-lite","bidUsd":0.00099,"worstUsd":0.00099,"reputation":0.533,"jobs":1,"eligible":false,"utility":null},{"bidder":"checker-mistral","label":"Mistral Small 3.2","model":"mistralai/mistral-small-3.2-24b-instruct","bidUsd":0.000741,"worstUsd":0.000741,"reputation":0.728,"jobs":6,"eligible":false,"utility":null}],"winner":"checker-haiku","reason":"best quality per dollar: reputation 0.91 for a $0.0113 bid"},{"role":"verifier","bids":[{"bidder":"verifier-sonnet","label":"Claude Sonnet 5","model":"anthropic/claude-sonnet-5","bidUsd":0.017107,"worstUsd":0.024686,"reputation":0.99,"jobs":38,"eligible":true,"utility":58}],"winner":"verifier-sonnet","reason":"the verifier is appointed, not auctioned"}],"workers":[{"id":"source-tracer","role":"traces the origin and splits the narrative into sub-claims","bidder":"tracer-flash-lite","label":"Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite","model":"google/gemini-2.5-flash-lite","status":"done","estimateUsd":0.000438,"costUsd":0.000424,"startedAt":"2026-10-01T03:58:01.901Z","finishedAt":"2026-10-01T03:58:04.719Z","error":null,"completionTokens":798,"latencyMs":2539,"grade":{"quality":1,"notes":["named the true earliest post","100% of citations are real posts","100% of sub-claims start where they first appear"],"reputationBefore":0.976,"reputationAfter":0.976}},{"id":"cross-checker","role":"checks each sub-claim against official sources and linked pages","bidder":"checker-haiku","label":"Claude Haiku 4.5","model":"anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5","status":"done","estimateUsd":0.011322,"costUsd":0.0069,"startedAt":"2026-10-01T03:58:04.772Z","finishedAt":"2026-10-01T03:58:12.610Z","error":null,"completionTokens":1126,"latencyMs":7584,"grade":{"quality":1,"notes":["100% of citations are fetched documents","100% of quotes appear word for word","assessed 11 of 11 sub-claims"],"reputationBefore":0.906,"reputationAfter":0.909}},{"id":"verifier","role":"combines both reports into a calibrated finding","bidder":"verifier-sonnet","label":"Claude Sonnet 5","model":"anthropic/claude-sonnet-5","status":"done","estimateUsd":0.017107,"costUsd":0.017812,"startedAt":"2026-10-01T03:58:12.610Z","finishedAt":"2026-10-01T03:58:22.158Z","error":null,"completionTokens":796,"latencyMs":9270,"grade":{"quality":1,"notes":["7 of 7 acceptance checks passed"],"reputationBefore":0.99,"reputationAfter":0.99}}],"evidence":[{"ref":"E1","name":"Project X status page: Project X status","url":"https://hunch-agent.up.railway.app/demo/projectx/status","kind":"official","ok":true,"excerpt":"Project X system status\nTrading Operational\nDeposits Operational\nWithdrawals Degraded: scheduled maintenance\nSecurity incidents None reported\nIncident history\nUpdate, 2026-10-01 03:37 UTC\nThe hot-wallet migration is in progress. Withdrawals are queued and will be processed in order once maintenance completes, expected by 2026-10-01 05:02 UTC. Deposits and trading are not affected. There has been no security incident and no user funds are at risk.\nMaintenance started, 2026-10-01 03:02 UTC\nScheduled maintenance has begun. Withdrawals may be delayed for up to two hours while we migrate our hot-wallet infrastructure.\nMaintenance was announced on 2026-09-30 01:57 UTC. See announcements .","error":null},{"ref":"E2","name":"Project X announcements: Project X announcements","url":"https://hunch-agent.up.railway.app/demo/projectx/announcements","kind":"official","ok":true,"excerpt":"Project X announcements\nScheduled maintenance: hot-wallet migration\nPosted 2026-09-30 01:57 UTC by the Project X team\nOn 2026-10-01 03:02 UTC we will migrate our hot wallets to new infrastructure. Deposits and trading are unaffected. Withdrawals requested during the window will be queued for up to two hours and processed in order afterwards.\nWe will never ask you to move your funds or send them anywhere. Follow the status page for live updates.","error":null}],"artifact":{"claim":"Project X withdrawals are stuck/pending (and worsened by rumors of an exploit, draining of funds, or being halted/frozen due to a hack), with Project X allegedly not having commented publicly.","status":"partially_supported","confidence":0.75,"origin":{"ref":"P1","url":"https://hunch-agent.up.railway.app/demo/posts/f1","source":"Project X community forum (demo)","firstSeen":"2026-10-01T03:57:27.000Z"},"finding":["Withdrawals being delayed/pending is confirmed: it's due to a scheduled hot-wallet migration maintenance, not an attack.","Severe sub-claims (exploit, drain, hack-related freeze) are explicitly contradicted by the official status page: no security incident, no funds at risk.","Claim that Project X 'had not commented' is false — an announcement was posted ahead of the maintenance window.","Core user-facing symptom (pending withdrawals) is real but benign and time-bound, expected to resolve by 2026-10-01 05:02 UTC."],"evidenceFor":[{"ref":"E1","url":"https://hunch-agent.up.railway.app/demo/projectx/status","source":"Project X status page: Project X status","finding":"Status page confirms withdrawals are queued/degraded due to scheduled maintenance, matching user reports of pending transactions."},{"ref":"P1","url":"https://hunch-agent.up.railway.app/demo/posts/f1","source":"Project X community forum (demo)","finding":"Firsthand report of a withdrawal pending well beyond normal time, consistent with maintenance-related delay."}],"evidenceAgainst":[{"ref":"E1","url":"https://hunch-agent.up.railway.app/demo/projectx/status","source":"Project X status page: Project X status","finding":"Status page explicitly states 'Security incidents: None reported' and 'no user funds are at risk,' contradicting exploit/drain speculation."},{"ref":"E2","url":"https://hunch-agent.up.railway.app/demo/projectx/announcements","source":"Project X announcements: Project X announcements","finding":"Official announcement posted 2026-09-30 01:57 UTC disclosed the maintenance in advance, contradicting claims Project X had not commented."}],"unknowns":["Whether the maintenance completion deadline (05:02 UTC) was actually met","Exact number/proportion of users affected","Normal withdrawal clearance time for comparison","Support team responsiveness during the incident"],"recommendedAction":"alert","rationale":"The mundane core of the narrative (withdrawals pending) is verified and explained by official sources as routine maintenance, but the more severe and highly shareable sub-claims (exploit, drain, hack, no official comment) that likely drove funding and virality are directly contradicted by official documentation. This gap between alarming framing and the calmer truth warrants a clarifying alert to prevent further panic-driven spread, though it does not rise to escalation since no evidence indicates actual harm or fund loss."},"acceptance":{"accepted":true,"checks":[{"label":"Fits the schema","ok":true,"detail":"parsed and validated"},{"label":"Origin is a real post","ok":true,"detail":"origin P1"},{"label":"Every citation exists","ok":true,"detail":"4 citations, all real"},{"label":"Two independent evidence items","ok":true,"detail":"3 distinct sources cited (11 available)"},{"label":"Uncertainty stated","ok":true,"detail":"confidence 0.75, 4 unknowns"},{"label":"Status matches evidence","ok":true,"detail":"partially_supported with 2 for / 2 against"},{"label":"Confidence in range","ok":true,"detail":"0.75"}]},"alert":{"channel":"dashboard","sent":true,"detail":"Telegram not configured; shown on the dashboard"},"error":null,"demo":true},{"id":"inv_499ddc","clusterId":"sig_e398fe","watchId":"wat_house","claim":"Project X withdrawals not going through for me either. Pending for over an hour now.","createdAt":"2026-10-01T03:12:33.733Z","finishedAt":"2026-10-01T03:12:54.323Z","status":"complete","maxBudgetUsd":1.1,"estimateUsd":0.036679,"spentUsd":0.026787,"balanceBefore":54.0629,"balanceAfter":54.036113,"keyPrefix":"sk-orbio-6lPABl","contract":{"task":"Verify the emerging claim: \"Project X withdrawals not going through for me either. Pending for over an hour now.\"","deadlineSec":120,"successConditions":["identify the earliest known source","return at least 2 independent evidence items if available","label each source as supports / contradicts / context","state the material unknowns","return the structured artifact, citing only real posts and fetched documents"]},"trigger":{"score":0.97,"mentions":9,"uniqueSources":4,"last15":9,"prev15":0},"auctions":[{"role":"source-tracer","bids":[{"bidder":"tracer-haiku","label":"Claude Haiku 4.5","model":"anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5","bidUsd":0.004732,"worstUsd":0.007132,"reputation":0.8,"jobs":0,"eligible":true,"utility":169},{"bidder":"tracer-flash-lite","label":"Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite","model":"google/gemini-2.5-flash-lite","bidUsd":0.000438,"worstUsd":0.000593,"reputation":0.975,"jobs":38,"eligible":true,"utility":2226},{"bidder":"tracer-mistral","label":"Mistral Small 3.2","model":"mistralai/mistral-small-3.2-24b-instruct","bidUsd":0.000406,"worstUsd":0.000406,"reputation":0.533,"jobs":1,"eligible":false,"utility":null}],"winner":"tracer-flash-lite","reason":"best quality per dollar: reputation 0.97 for a $0.0004 bid"},{"role":"cross-checker","bids":[{"bidder":"checker-haiku","label":"Claude Haiku 4.5","model":"anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5","bidUsd":0.011352,"worstUsd":0.0114,"reputation":0.904,"jobs":32,"eligible":true,"utility":80},{"bidder":"checker-flash-lite","label":"Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite","model":"google/gemini-2.5-flash-lite","bidUsd":0.00099,"worstUsd":0.00099,"reputation":0.533,"jobs":1,"eligible":false,"utility":null},{"bidder":"checker-mistral","label":"Mistral Small 3.2","model":"mistralai/mistral-small-3.2-24b-instruct","bidUsd":0.000741,"worstUsd":0.000741,"reputation":0.728,"jobs":6,"eligible":false,"utility":null}],"winner":"checker-haiku","reason":"best quality per dollar: reputation 0.90 for a $0.0114 bid"},{"role":"verifier","bids":[{"bidder":"verifier-sonnet","label":"Claude Sonnet 5","model":"anthropic/claude-sonnet-5","bidUsd":0.017112,"worstUsd":0.024686,"reputation":0.99,"jobs":37,"eligible":true,"utility":58}],"winner":"verifier-sonnet","reason":"the verifier is appointed, not auctioned"}],"workers":[{"id":"source-tracer","role":"traces the origin and splits the narrative into sub-claims","bidder":"tracer-flash-lite","label":"Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite","model":"google/gemini-2.5-flash-lite","status":"done","estimateUsd":0.000438,"costUsd":0.000437,"startedAt":"2026-10-01T03:12:34.007Z","finishedAt":"2026-10-01T03:12:36.857Z","error":null,"completionTokens":830,"latencyMs":2646,"grade":{"quality":1,"notes":["named the true earliest post","100% of citations are real posts","100% of sub-claims start where they first appear"],"reputationBefore":0.975,"reputationAfter":0.976}},{"id":"cross-checker","role":"checks each sub-claim against official sources and linked pages","bidder":"checker-haiku","label":"Claude Haiku 4.5","model":"anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5","status":"done","estimateUsd":0.011352,"costUsd":0.007772,"startedAt":"2026-10-01T03:12:36.887Z","finishedAt":"2026-10-01T03:12:45.087Z","error":null,"completionTokens":1298,"latencyMs":7971,"grade":{"quality":1,"notes":["100% of citations are fetched documents","100% of quotes appear word for word","assessed 11 of 11 sub-claims"],"reputationBefore":0.904,"reputationAfter":0.906}},{"id":"verifier","role":"combines both reports into a calibrated finding","bidder":"verifier-sonnet","label":"Claude Sonnet 5","model":"anthropic/claude-sonnet-5","status":"done","estimateUsd":0.017112,"costUsd":0.018578,"startedAt":"2026-10-01T03:12:45.088Z","finishedAt":"2026-10-01T03:12:54.129Z","error":null,"completionTokens":823,"latencyMs":8772,"grade":{"quality":1,"notes":["7 of 7 acceptance checks passed"],"reputationBefore":0.99,"reputationAfter":0.99}}],"evidence":[{"ref":"E1","name":"Project X status page: Project X status","url":"https://hunch-agent.up.railway.app/demo/projectx/status","kind":"official","ok":true,"excerpt":"Project X system status\nTrading Operational\nDeposits Operational\nWithdrawals Degraded: scheduled maintenance\nSecurity incidents None reported\nIncident history\nUpdate, 2026-10-01 02:51 UTC\nThe hot-wallet migration is in progress. Withdrawals are queued and will be processed in order once maintenance completes, expected by 2026-10-01 04:16 UTC. Deposits and trading are not affected. There has been no security incident and no user funds are at risk.\nMaintenance started, 2026-10-01 02:16 UTC\nScheduled maintenance has begun. Withdrawals may be delayed for up to two hours while we migrate our hot-wallet infrastructure.\nMaintenance was announced on 2026-09-30 01:11 UTC. See announcements .","error":null},{"ref":"E2","name":"Project X announcements: Project X announcements","url":"https://hunch-agent.up.railway.app/demo/projectx/announcements","kind":"official","ok":true,"excerpt":"Project X announcements\nScheduled maintenance: hot-wallet migration\nPosted 2026-09-30 01:11 UTC by the Project X team\nOn 2026-10-01 02:16 UTC we will migrate our hot wallets to new infrastructure. Deposits and trading are unaffected. Withdrawals requested during the window will be queued for up to two hours and processed in order afterwards.\nWe will never ask you to move your funds or send them anywhere. Follow the status page for live updates.","error":null}],"artifact":{"claim":"Project X withdrawals have been pending/stuck for over an hour, with some users speculating this indicates an exploit or that the project was drained.","status":"partially_supported","confidence":0.55,"origin":{"ref":"P1","url":"https://hunch-agent.up.railway.app/demo/posts/f1","source":"Project X community forum (demo)","firstSeen":"2026-10-01T03:11:58.000Z"},"finding":["Withdrawal delays are real and confirmed by Project X's own status page, attributed to scheduled hot-wallet maintenance (up to 2hr window).","Project X did announce this maintenance in advance (E2), contradicting claims that it 'had not commented publicly.'","The severe sub-claims \\u2014 exploit, draining, halted due to compromise \\u2014 are explicitly contradicted by the official status page, which states no security incident and no funds at risk.","Exact elapsed pending time (40min vs 1hr vs 2hr) cannot be verified since current time isn't given in documents, but it falls within the disclosed maintenance window."],"evidenceFor":[{"ref":"E1","url":"https://hunch-agent.up.railway.app/demo/projectx/status","source":"Project X status page: Project X status","finding":"Status page confirms withdrawals are degraded/queued due to scheduled maintenance, consistent with users reporting pending withdrawals."},{"ref":"P9","url":"https://hunch-agent.up.railway.app/demo/posts/f3","source":"Project X community forum (demo)","finding":"User reports withdrawals pending for 2 hours, within the stated maintenance window."}],"evidenceAgainst":[{"ref":"E1","url":"https://hunch-agent.up.railway.app/demo/projectx/status","source":"Project X status page: Project X status","finding":"Status page explicitly states 'Security incidents: None reported' and 'no user funds are at risk,' contradicting exploit/drain speculation."},{"ref":"E2","url":"https://hunch-agent.up.railway.app/demo/projectx/announcements","source":"Project X announcements: Project X announcements","finding":"Official announcement was posted on 2026-09-30, before the maintenance, contradicting the claim that Project X had not commented."}],"unknowns":["Exact current time relative to maintenance start/end, so true elapsed pending duration can't be confirmed.","Whether support has responded to individual user complaints.","Scale of affected users beyond the few posts sampled."],"recommendedAction":"alert","rationale":"The baseline claim (withdrawals pending) is confirmed and benign \\u2014 it's disclosed scheduled maintenance. However, the narrative is spreading with escalating severity language (exploit, drained, halted) that is explicitly contradicted by the official status page. Given 9 mentions in 15 minutes and panic-inducing language ('get your funds out while you still can'), an alert is warranted so the operator can push a public clarification pointing to the official maintenance announcement before the exploit rumor causes a bank-run style panic, though it does not yet rise to confirmed real harm requiring escalation."},"acceptance":{"accepted":true,"checks":[{"label":"Fits the schema","ok":true,"detail":"parsed and validated"},{"label":"Origin is a real post","ok":true,"detail":"origin P1"},{"label":"Every citation exists","ok":true,"detail":"4 citations, all real"},{"label":"Two independent evidence items","ok":true,"detail":"3 distinct sources cited (11 available)"},{"label":"Uncertainty stated","ok":true,"detail":"confidence 0.55, 3 unknowns"},{"label":"Status matches evidence","ok":true,"detail":"partially_supported with 2 for / 2 against"},{"label":"Confidence in range","ok":true,"detail":"0.55"}]},"alert":{"channel":"dashboard","sent":true,"detail":"Telegram not configured; shown on the dashboard"},"error":null,"demo":true},{"id":"inv_48eb46","clusterId":"sig_a27030","watchId":"wat_house","claim":"Project X withdrawals not going through for me either. Pending for over an hour now.","createdAt":"2026-10-01T02:23:29.568Z","finishedAt":"2026-10-01T02:23:52.929Z","status":"complete","maxBudgetUsd":1.1,"estimateUsd":0.036679,"spentUsd":0.026843,"balanceBefore":54.089743,"balanceAfter":54.0629,"keyPrefix":"sk-orbio-6lPABl","contract":{"task":"Verify the emerging claim: \"Project X withdrawals not going through for me either. Pending for over an hour now.\"","deadlineSec":120,"successConditions":["identify the earliest known source","return at least 2 independent evidence items if available","label each source as supports / contradicts / context","state the material unknowns","return the structured artifact, citing only real posts and fetched documents"]},"trigger":{"score":0.97,"mentions":9,"uniqueSources":4,"last15":9,"prev15":0},"auctions":[{"role":"source-tracer","bids":[{"bidder":"tracer-haiku","label":"Claude Haiku 4.5","model":"anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5","bidUsd":0.004732,"worstUsd":0.007132,"reputation":0.8,"jobs":0,"eligible":true,"utility":169},{"bidder":"tracer-flash-lite","label":"Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite","model":"google/gemini-2.5-flash-lite","bidUsd":0.000439,"worstUsd":0.000593,"reputation":0.974,"jobs":37,"eligible":true,"utility":2219},{"bidder":"tracer-mistral","label":"Mistral Small 3.2","model":"mistralai/mistral-small-3.2-24b-instruct","bidUsd":0.000406,"worstUsd":0.000406,"reputation":0.533,"jobs":1,"eligible":false,"utility":null}],"winner":"tracer-flash-lite","reason":"best quality per dollar: reputation 0.97 for a $0.0004 bid"},{"role":"cross-checker","bids":[{"bidder":"checker-haiku","label":"Claude Haiku 4.5","model":"anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5","bidUsd":0.011394,"worstUsd":0.0114,"reputation":0.904,"jobs":31,"eligible":true,"utility":79},{"bidder":"checker-flash-lite","label":"Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite","model":"google/gemini-2.5-flash-lite","bidUsd":0.00099,"worstUsd":0.00099,"reputation":0.533,"jobs":1,"eligible":false,"utility":null},{"bidder":"checker-mistral","label":"Mistral Small 3.2","model":"mistralai/mistral-small-3.2-24b-instruct","bidUsd":0.000741,"worstUsd":0.000741,"reputation":0.728,"jobs":6,"eligible":false,"utility":null}],"winner":"checker-haiku","reason":"best quality per dollar: reputation 0.90 for a $0.0114 bid"},{"role":"verifier","bids":[{"bidder":"verifier-sonnet","label":"Claude Sonnet 5","model":"anthropic/claude-sonnet-5","bidUsd":0.017097,"worstUsd":0.024686,"reputation":0.989,"jobs":36,"eligible":true,"utility":58}],"winner":"verifier-sonnet","reason":"the verifier is appointed, not auctioned"}],"workers":[{"id":"source-tracer","role":"traces the origin and splits the narrative into sub-claims","bidder":"tracer-flash-lite","label":"Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite","model":"google/gemini-2.5-flash-lite","status":"done","estimateUsd":0.000439,"costUsd":0.00038,"startedAt":"2026-10-01T02:23:29.810Z","finishedAt":"2026-10-01T02:23:32.272Z","error":null,"completionTokens":688,"latencyMs":2220,"grade":{"quality":1,"notes":["named the true earliest post","100% of citations are real posts","100% of sub-claims start where they first appear"],"reputationBefore":0.974,"reputationAfter":0.975}},{"id":"cross-checker","role":"checks each sub-claim against official sources and linked pages","bidder":"checker-haiku","label":"Claude Haiku 4.5","model":"anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5","status":"done","estimateUsd":0.011394,"costUsd":0.007379,"startedAt":"2026-10-01T02:23:32.300Z","finishedAt":"2026-10-01T02:23:41.224Z","error":null,"completionTokens":1227,"latencyMs":8717,"grade":{"quality":0.9,"notes":["100% of citations are fetched documents","80% of quotes appear word for word","assessed 9 of 9 sub-claims"],"reputationBefore":0.904,"reputationAfter":0.904}},{"id":"verifier","role":"combines both reports into a calibrated finding","bidder":"verifier-sonnet","label":"Claude Sonnet 5","model":"anthropic/claude-sonnet-5","status":"done","estimateUsd":0.017097,"costUsd":0.019084,"startedAt":"2026-10-01T02:23:41.225Z","finishedAt":"2026-10-01T02:23:52.747Z","error":null,"completionTokens":897,"latencyMs":11301,"grade":{"quality":1,"notes":["7 of 7 acceptance checks passed"],"reputationBefore":0.989,"reputationAfter":0.99}}],"evidence":[{"ref":"E1","name":"Project X status page: Project X status","url":"https://hunch-agent.up.railway.app/demo/projectx/status","kind":"official","ok":true,"excerpt":"Project X system status\nTrading Operational\nDeposits Operational\nWithdrawals Degraded: scheduled maintenance\nSecurity incidents None reported\nIncident history\nUpdate, 2026-10-01 02:03 UTC\nThe hot-wallet migration is in progress. Withdrawals are queued and will be processed in order once maintenance completes, expected by 2026-10-01 03:28 UTC. Deposits and trading are not affected. There has been no security incident and no user funds are at risk.\nMaintenance started, 2026-10-01 01:28 UTC\nScheduled maintenance has begun. Withdrawals may be delayed for up to two hours while we migrate our hot-wallet infrastructure.\nMaintenance was announced on 2026-09-30 00:23 UTC. See announcements .","error":null},{"ref":"E2","name":"Project X announcements: Project X announcements","url":"https://hunch-agent.up.railway.app/demo/projectx/announcements","kind":"official","ok":true,"excerpt":"Project X announcements\nScheduled maintenance: hot-wallet migration\nPosted 2026-09-30 00:23 UTC by the Project X team\nOn 2026-10-01 01:28 UTC we will migrate our hot wallets to new infrastructure. Deposits and trading are unaffected. Withdrawals requested during the window will be queued for up to two hours and processed in order afterwards.\nWe will never ask you to move your funds or send them anywhere. Follow the status page for live updates.","error":null}],"artifact":{"claim":"Project X withdrawals are pending/delayed (including the more severe sub-claims circulating that withdrawals are frozen, an exploit has occurred, or Project X was drained of funds).","status":"partially_supported","confidence":0.75,"origin":{"ref":"P1","url":"https://hunch-agent.up.railway.app/demo/posts/f1","source":"Project X community forum (demo)","firstSeen":"2026-10-01T02:23:01.000Z"},"finding":["Milder claim (withdrawals pending/delayed) is confirmed by Project X's own status page and announcement, tied to a scheduled hot-wallet migration.","Severe claims (exploit, drained, frozen, 'something very wrong') are explicitly contradicted by official sources stating no security incident and no funds at risk.","Claim that Project X 'has not commented' is false \\u2014 they posted a maintenance notice in advance and an update during the window.","All confirming evidence is self-reported by Project X; no independent third-party verification exists yet."],"evidenceFor":[{"ref":"E1","url":"https://hunch-agent.up.railway.app/demo/projectx/status","source":"Project X status page: Project X status","finding":"Status page confirms withdrawals are queued/delayed up to two hours due to hot-wallet migration maintenance."},{"ref":"E2","url":"https://hunch-agent.up.railway.app/demo/projectx/announcements","source":"Project X announcements: Project X announcements","finding":"Announcement posted 2026-09-30 describes the scheduled maintenance causing withdrawal delays."},{"ref":"P9","url":"https://hunch-agent.up.railway.app/demo/posts/f3","source":"Project X community forum (demo)","finding":"User firsthand report of withdrawal pending for 2 hours, consistent with the maintenance window length."}],"evidenceAgainst":[{"ref":"E1","url":"https://hunch-agent.up.railway.app/demo/projectx/status","source":"Project X status page: Project X status","finding":"Status page explicitly reports no security incidents and no user funds at risk, contradicting exploit/drained claims."},{"ref":"E1","url":"https://hunch-agent.up.railway.app/demo/projectx/status","source":"Project X status page: Project X status","finding":"Withdrawals are described as queued and will be processed, not frozen indefinitely."},{"ref":"E2","url":"https://hunch-agent.up.railway.app/demo/projectx/announcements","source":"Project X announcements: Project X announcements","finding":"Shows Project X proactively communicated about the issue, contradicting claims of silence."}],"unknowns":["Exact number of users currently affected and whether all cases fall within the stated 2-hour maintenance window.","No independent/third-party confirmation of the maintenance cause or its necessity.","Precise completion time of the migration and whether delays could extend beyond the stated window.","Whether any individual withdrawal has genuinely failed/not just been queued."],"recommendedAction":"alert","rationale":"The core, verifiable claim (withdrawals delayed) is confirmed and explained by official maintenance notices, but the most severe and highest-reach sub-claims (exploit, drained, frozen) are actively contradicted by the same official source. Given the claim is spreading fast (9 mentions/15min, score 0.97) and includes unfounded exploit/drain language that could cause panic or bank-run behavior, an alert with a public clarification pointing to the status page is warranted, though not yet an escalation since no evidence supports actual fund loss or security breach."},"acceptance":{"accepted":true,"checks":[{"label":"Fits the schema","ok":true,"detail":"parsed and validated"},{"label":"Origin is a real post","ok":true,"detail":"origin P1"},{"label":"Every citation exists","ok":true,"detail":"6 citations, all real"},{"label":"Two independent evidence items","ok":true,"detail":"3 distinct sources cited (11 available)"},{"label":"Uncertainty stated","ok":true,"detail":"confidence 0.75, 4 unknowns"},{"label":"Status matches evidence","ok":true,"detail":"partially_supported with 3 for / 3 against"},{"label":"Confidence in range","ok":true,"detail":"0.75"}]},"alert":{"channel":"dashboard","sent":true,"detail":"Telegram not configured; shown on the dashboard"},"error":null,"demo":true},{"id":"inv_032f67","clusterId":"sig_014d08","watchId":"wat_house","claim":"Project X withdrawals not going through for me either. Pending for over an hour now.","createdAt":"2026-10-01T00:27:40.416Z","finishedAt":"2026-10-01T00:28:04.473Z","status":"complete","maxBudgetUsd":1.1,"estimateUsd":0.036679,"spentUsd":0.028197,"balanceBefore":54.117938,"balanceAfter":54.089743,"keyPrefix":"sk-orbio-6lPABl","contract":{"task":"Verify the emerging claim: \"Project X withdrawals not going through for me either. Pending for over an hour now.\"","deadlineSec":120,"successConditions":["identify the earliest known source","return at least 2 independent evidence items if available","label each source as supports / contradicts / context","state the material unknowns","return the structured artifact, citing only real posts and fetched documents"]},"trigger":{"score":0.97,"mentions":9,"uniqueSources":4,"last15":9,"prev15":0},"auctions":[{"role":"source-tracer","bids":[{"bidder":"tracer-haiku","label":"Claude Haiku 4.5","model":"anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5","bidUsd":0.004732,"worstUsd":0.007132,"reputation":0.8,"jobs":0,"eligible":true,"utility":169},{"bidder":"tracer-flash-lite","label":"Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite","model":"google/gemini-2.5-flash-lite","bidUsd":0.00044,"worstUsd":0.000593,"reputation":0.974,"jobs":36,"eligible":true,"utility":2214},{"bidder":"tracer-mistral","label":"Mistral Small 3.2","model":"mistralai/mistral-small-3.2-24b-instruct","bidUsd":0.000406,"worstUsd":0.000406,"reputation":0.533,"jobs":1,"eligible":false,"utility":null}],"winner":"tracer-flash-lite","reason":"best quality per dollar: reputation 0.97 for a $0.0004 bid"},{"role":"cross-checker","bids":[{"bidder":"checker-haiku","label":"Claude Haiku 4.5","model":"anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5","bidUsd":0.0114,"worstUsd":0.0114,"reputation":0.901,"jobs":30,"eligible":true,"utility":79},{"bidder":"checker-flash-lite","label":"Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite","model":"google/gemini-2.5-flash-lite","bidUsd":0.00099,"worstUsd":0.00099,"reputation":0.533,"jobs":1,"eligible":false,"utility":null},{"bidder":"checker-mistral","label":"Mistral Small 3.2","model":"mistralai/mistral-small-3.2-24b-instruct","bidUsd":0.000741,"worstUsd":0.000741,"reputation":0.728,"jobs":6,"eligible":false,"utility":null}],"winner":"checker-haiku","reason":"best quality per dollar: reputation 0.90 for a $0.0114 bid"},{"role":"verifier","bids":[{"bidder":"verifier-sonnet","label":"Claude Sonnet 5","model":"anthropic/claude-sonnet-5","bidUsd":0.017069,"worstUsd":0.024686,"reputation":0.989,"jobs":35,"eligible":true,"utility":58}],"winner":"verifier-sonnet","reason":"the verifier is appointed, not auctioned"}],"workers":[{"id":"source-tracer","role":"traces the origin and splits the narrative into sub-claims","bidder":"tracer-flash-lite","label":"Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite","model":"google/gemini-2.5-flash-lite","status":"done","estimateUsd":0.00044,"costUsd":0.000388,"startedAt":"2026-10-01T00:27:40.659Z","finishedAt":"2026-10-01T00:27:43.343Z","error":null,"completionTokens":707,"latencyMs":2468,"grade":{"quality":1,"notes":["named the true earliest post","100% of citations are real posts","100% of sub-claims start where they first appear"],"reputationBefore":0.974,"reputationAfter":0.974}},{"id":"cross-checker","role":"checks each sub-claim against official sources and linked pages","bidder":"checker-haiku","label":"Claude Haiku 4.5","model":"anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5","status":"done","estimateUsd":0.0114,"costUsd":0.007973,"startedAt":"2026-10-01T00:27:43.376Z","finishedAt":"2026-10-01T00:27:53.451Z","error":null,"completionTokens":1340,"latencyMs":9789,"grade":{"quality":1,"notes":["100% of citations are fetched documents","100% of quotes appear word for word","assessed 9 of 9 sub-claims"],"reputationBefore":0.901,"reputationAfter":0.904}},{"id":"verifier","role":"combines both reports into a calibrated finding","bidder":"verifier-sonnet","label":"Claude Sonnet 5","model":"anthropic/claude-sonnet-5","status":"done","estimateUsd":0.017069,"costUsd":0.019836,"startedAt":"2026-10-01T00:27:53.451Z","finishedAt":"2026-10-01T00:28:04.217Z","error":null,"completionTokens":942,"latencyMs":10347,"grade":{"quality":1,"notes":["7 of 7 acceptance checks passed"],"reputationBefore":0.989,"reputationAfter":0.989}}],"evidence":[{"ref":"E1","name":"Project X status page: Project X status","url":"https://hunch-agent.up.railway.app/demo/projectx/status","kind":"official","ok":true,"excerpt":"Project X system status\nTrading Operational\nDeposits Operational\nWithdrawals Degraded: scheduled maintenance\nSecurity incidents None reported\nIncident history\nUpdate, 2026-10-01 00:07 UTC\nThe hot-wallet migration is in progress. Withdrawals are queued and will be processed in order once maintenance completes, expected by 2026-10-01 01:32 UTC. Deposits and trading are not affected. There has been no security incident and no user funds are at risk.\nMaintenance started, 2026-09-30 23:32 UTC\nScheduled maintenance has begun. Withdrawals may be delayed for up to two hours while we migrate our hot-wallet infrastructure.\nMaintenance was announced on 2026-09-29 22:27 UTC. See announcements .","error":null},{"ref":"E2","name":"Project X announcements: Project X announcements","url":"https://hunch-agent.up.railway.app/demo/projectx/announcements","kind":"official","ok":true,"excerpt":"Project X announcements\nScheduled maintenance: hot-wallet migration\nPosted 2026-09-29 22:27 UTC by the Project X team\nOn 2026-09-30 23:32 UTC we will migrate our hot wallets to new infrastructure. Deposits and trading are unaffected. Withdrawals requested during the window will be queued for up to two hours and processed in order afterwards.\nWe will never ask you to move your funds or send them anywhere. Follow the status page for live updates.","error":null}],"artifact":{"claim":"Project X withdrawals are stuck/pending for extended periods (up to two hours), with some users speculating this is due to an exploit or drained funds halting withdrawals.","status":"partially_supported","confidence":0.75,"origin":{"ref":"P1","url":"https://hunch-agent.up.railway.app/demo/posts/f1","source":"Project X community forum (demo)","firstSeen":"2026-10-01T00:27:05.000Z"},"finding":["Official status page (E1) confirms withdrawals are delayed up to 2 hours due to scheduled hot-wallet migration maintenance, matching the milder 'stuck/pending' reports.","The severe sub-claims (exploit, drained funds, frozen withdrawals, 'something very wrong') are explicitly contradicted by official sources, which report no security incidents and no funds at risk.","The claim that withdrawals 'typically clear in two minutes' is also contradicted during this maintenance window, though normal baseline timing outside maintenance is unverified.","Speculative severity terms (exploit, drained, halted) appear to be user panic reactions, not confirmed by any evidence."],"evidenceFor":[{"ref":"E1","url":"https://hunch-agent.up.railway.app/demo/projectx/status","source":"Project X status page: Project X status","finding":"Status page confirms withdrawals are queued/degraded and delayed up to two hours due to scheduled maintenance, consistent with pending/stuck reports."},{"ref":"E2","url":"https://hunch-agent.up.railway.app/demo/projectx/announcements","source":"Project X announcements: Project X announcements","finding":"Official announcement confirms withdrawals requested during the maintenance window will be queued up to two hours, explaining the delay pattern users describe."}],"evidenceAgainst":[{"ref":"E1","url":"https://hunch-agent.up.railway.app/demo/projectx/status","source":"Project X status page: Project X status","finding":"Status page explicitly states 'Security incidents: None reported' and 'no user funds are at risk,' contradicting exploit/drain speculation."},{"ref":"E1","url":"https://hunch-agent.up.railway.app/demo/projectx/status","source":"Project X status page: Project X status","finding":"Status page describes withdrawals as 'Degraded' and queued for processing, not 'frozen' or halted entirely, contradicting the more alarming framing in P6-P8."}],"unknowns":["Whether any individual withdrawal has exceeded the official 2-hour maximum delay window.","Whether Project X support has been responsive to user complaints during this period.","Whether the maintenance explanation is itself accurate and independently verifiable beyond Project X's own statements.","Baseline normal withdrawal processing time outside of maintenance windows."],"recommendedAction":"alert","rationale":"The narrative's core factual element (withdrawals delayed/pending) is confirmed by official sources as expected behavior during announced maintenance, but the most severity-driving and attention-grabbing elements—exploit, drained funds, frozen withdrawals—are directly contradicted by the same official sources. Because these severe claims are actively spreading with high velocity (9 mentions in 15 minutes, score 0.97) and could cause panic withdrawals or reputational harm despite being false, an alert to the operator recommending a public clarification referencing the status page is warranted, though not yet an escalation since no evidence supports actual fund loss or security compromise."},"acceptance":{"accepted":true,"checks":[{"label":"Fits the schema","ok":true,"detail":"parsed and validated"},{"label":"Origin is a real post","ok":true,"detail":"origin P1"},{"label":"Every citation exists","ok":true,"detail":"4 citations, all real"},{"label":"Two independent evidence items","ok":true,"detail":"2 distinct sources cited (11 available)"},{"label":"Uncertainty stated","ok":true,"detail":"confidence 0.75, 4 unknowns"},{"label":"Status matches evidence","ok":true,"detail":"partially_supported with 2 for / 2 against"},{"label":"Confidence in range","ok":true,"detail":"0.75"}]},"alert":{"channel":"dashboard","sent":true,"detail":"Telegram not configured; shown on the dashboard"},"error":null,"demo":true},{"id":"inv_a781d7","clusterId":"sig_75c2cc","watchId":"wat_house","claim":"Project X withdrawals not going through for me either. Pending for over an hour now.","createdAt":"2026-09-30T23:13:30.967Z","finishedAt":"2026-09-30T23:13:59.920Z","status":"complete","maxBudgetUsd":1.1,"estimateUsd":0.036679,"spentUsd":0.028506,"balanceBefore":54.155244,"balanceAfter":54.126738,"keyPrefix":"sk-orbio-6lPABl","contract":{"task":"Verify the emerging claim: \"Project X withdrawals not going through for me either. Pending for over an hour now.\"","deadlineSec":120,"successConditions":["identify the earliest known source","return at least 2 independent evidence items if available","label each source as supports / contradicts / context","state the material unknowns","return the structured artifact, citing only real posts and fetched documents"]},"trigger":{"score":0.97,"mentions":9,"uniqueSources":4,"last15":9,"prev15":0},"auctions":[{"role":"source-tracer","bids":[{"bidder":"tracer-haiku","label":"Claude Haiku 4.5","model":"anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5","bidUsd":0.004732,"worstUsd":0.007132,"reputation":0.8,"jobs":0,"eligible":true,"utility":169},{"bidder":"tracer-flash-lite","label":"Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite","model":"google/gemini-2.5-flash-lite","bidUsd":0.000441,"worstUsd":0.000593,"reputation":0.973,"jobs":35,"eligible":true,"utility":2206},{"bidder":"tracer-mistral","label":"Mistral Small 3.2","model":"mistralai/mistral-small-3.2-24b-instruct","bidUsd":0.000406,"worstUsd":0.000406,"reputation":0.533,"jobs":1,"eligible":false,"utility":null}],"winner":"tracer-flash-lite","reason":"best quality per dollar: reputation 0.97 for a $0.0004 bid"},{"role":"cross-checker","bids":[{"bidder":"checker-haiku","label":"Claude Haiku 4.5","model":"anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5","bidUsd":0.0114,"worstUsd":0.0114,"reputation":0.897,"jobs":29,"eligible":true,"utility":79},{"bidder":"checker-flash-lite","label":"Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite","model":"google/gemini-2.5-flash-lite","bidUsd":0.00099,"worstUsd":0.00099,"reputation":0.533,"jobs":1,"eligible":false,"utility":null},{"bidder":"checker-mistral","label":"Mistral Small 3.2","model":"mistralai/mistral-small-3.2-24b-instruct","bidUsd":0.000741,"worstUsd":0.000741,"reputation":0.728,"jobs":6,"eligible":false,"utility":null}],"winner":"checker-haiku","reason":"best quality per dollar: reputation 0.90 for a $0.0114 bid"},{"role":"verifier","bids":[{"bidder":"verifier-sonnet","label":"Claude Sonnet 5","model":"anthropic/claude-sonnet-5","bidUsd":0.01706,"worstUsd":0.024686,"reputation":0.989,"jobs":34,"eligible":true,"utility":58}],"winner":"verifier-sonnet","reason":"the verifier is appointed, not auctioned"}],"workers":[{"id":"source-tracer","role":"traces the origin and splits the narrative into sub-claims","bidder":"tracer-flash-lite","label":"Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite","model":"google/gemini-2.5-flash-lite","status":"done","estimateUsd":0.000441,"costUsd":0.000403,"startedAt":"2026-09-30T23:13:32.785Z","finishedAt":"2026-09-30T23:13:35.691Z","error":null,"completionTokens":745,"latencyMs":2686,"grade":{"quality":1,"notes":["named the true earliest post","100% of citations are real posts","100% of sub-claims start where they first appear"],"reputationBefore":0.973,"reputationAfter":0.974}},{"id":"cross-checker","role":"checks each sub-claim against official sources and linked pages","bidder":"checker-haiku","label":"Claude Haiku 4.5","model":"anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5","status":"done","estimateUsd":0.0114,"costUsd":0.008721,"startedAt":"2026-09-30T23:13:35.786Z","finishedAt":"2026-09-30T23:13:50.375Z","error":null,"completionTokens":1490,"latencyMs":14193,"grade":{"quality":1,"notes":["100% of citations are fetched documents","100% of quotes appear word for word","assessed 11 of 10 sub-claims"],"reputationBefore":0.897,"reputationAfter":0.901}},{"id":"verifier","role":"combines both reports into a calibrated finding","bidder":"verifier-sonnet","label":"Claude Sonnet 5","model":"anthropic/claude-sonnet-5","status":"done","estimateUsd":0.01706,"costUsd":0.019382,"startedAt":"2026-09-30T23:13:50.376Z","finishedAt":"2026-09-30T23:13:59.709Z","error":null,"completionTokens":868,"latencyMs":9113,"grade":{"quality":1,"notes":["7 of 7 acceptance checks passed"],"reputationBefore":0.989,"reputationAfter":0.989}}],"evidence":[{"ref":"E1","name":"Project X status page: Project X status","url":"https://hunch-agent.up.railway.app/demo/projectx/status","kind":"official","ok":true,"excerpt":"Project X system status\nTrading Operational\nDeposits Operational\nWithdrawals Degraded: scheduled maintenance\nSecurity incidents None reported\nIncident history\nUpdate, 2026-09-30 22:52 UTC\nThe hot-wallet migration is in progress. Withdrawals are queued and will be processed in order once maintenance completes, expected by 2026-10-01 00:17 UTC. Deposits and trading are not affected. There has been no security incident and no user funds are at risk.\nMaintenance started, 2026-09-30 22:17 UTC\nScheduled maintenance has begun. Withdrawals may be delayed for up to two hours while we migrate our hot-wallet infrastructure.\nMaintenance was announced on 2026-09-29 21:12 UTC. See announcements .","error":null},{"ref":"E2","name":"Project X announcements: Project X announcements","url":"https://hunch-agent.up.railway.app/demo/projectx/announcements","kind":"official","ok":true,"excerpt":"Project X announcements\nScheduled maintenance: hot-wallet migration\nPosted 2026-09-29 21:12 UTC by the Project X team\nOn 2026-09-30 22:17 UTC we will migrate our hot wallets to new infrastructure. Deposits and trading are unaffected. Withdrawals requested during the window will be queued for up to two hours and processed in order afterwards.\nWe will never ask you to move your funds or send them anywhere. Follow the status page for live updates.","error":null}],"artifact":{"claim":"Project X withdrawals are stuck/pending for extended periods (up to two hours), with some users and posts speculating this is due to an exploit, drain, or security incident rather than routine maintenance.","status":"partially_supported","confidence":0.75,"origin":{"ref":"P1","url":"https://hunch-agent.up.railway.app/demo/posts/f1","source":"Project X community forum (demo)","firstSeen":"2026-09-30T23:12:57.000Z"},"finding":["Withdrawals being delayed/queued is confirmed true, but it's due to scheduled hot-wallet migration maintenance, not an exploit.","Official status page (E1) and announcement (E2) explicitly deny any security incident or funds at risk, directly contradicting the exploit/drain speculation.","Project X had already publicly announced the maintenance window a day in advance, contradicting claims that the company 'had not commented publicly.'","Delay durations (up to 2 hours) align with the official maintenance window, so individual reports of 40min-2hr pending times are plausible and expected."],"evidenceFor":[{"ref":"E1","url":"https://hunch-agent.up.railway.app/demo/projectx/status","source":"Project X status page: Project X status","finding":"Status page confirms withdrawals are queued/degraded and may be delayed up to two hours due to scheduled maintenance."},{"ref":"E2","url":"https://hunch-agent.up.railway.app/demo/projectx/announcements","source":"Project X announcements: Project X announcements","finding":"Official announcement confirms withdrawals requested during the maintenance window will be queued for up to two hours."}],"evidenceAgainst":[{"ref":"E1","url":"https://hunch-agent.up.railway.app/demo/projectx/status","source":"Project X status page: Project X status","finding":"Status page explicitly states 'no security incident and no user funds are at risk,' contradicting exploit/drain speculation."},{"ref":"E2","url":"https://hunch-agent.up.railway.app/demo/projectx/announcements","source":"Project X announcements: Project X announcements","finding":"Announcement was posted 2026-09-29 21:12 UTC, before the maintenance window, contradicting claims Project X had not commented."}],"unknowns":["Whether any individual user's withdrawal exceeded the announced 2-hour maintenance window.","Current status of support ticket responses.","Whether the maintenance window has now concluded and withdrawals are clearing normally.","Scale and authenticity of the 9 mentions (possible bot amplification) vs organic concern."],"recommendedAction":"alert","rationale":"The core factual claim (withdrawals delayed/pending) is verified and explained by official, pre-announced maintenance, so no funds are at risk. However, the most severe and rapidly spreading sub-claims—exploit, drain, halt due to security incident—are directly contradicted by official sources. Because this narrative is spreading fast (9 mentions in 15 min, score 0.97) and includes alarming unverified language ('drained', 'exploit', 'get your funds out'), an alert with a public clarification pointing to the status page is warranted to prevent panic-driven actions, though urgency is moderate since the underlying issue is already disclosed and time-bound."},"acceptance":{"accepted":true,"checks":[{"label":"Fits the schema","ok":true,"detail":"parsed and validated"},{"label":"Origin is a real post","ok":true,"detail":"origin P1"},{"label":"Every citation exists","ok":true,"detail":"4 citations, all real"},{"label":"Two independent evidence items","ok":true,"detail":"2 distinct sources cited (11 available)"},{"label":"Uncertainty stated","ok":true,"detail":"confidence 0.75, 4 unknowns"},{"label":"Status matches evidence","ok":true,"detail":"partially_supported with 2 for / 2 against"},{"label":"Confidence in range","ok":true,"detail":"0.75"}]},"alert":{"channel":"dashboard","sent":true,"detail":"Telegram not configured; shown on the dashboard"},"error":null,"demo":true},{"id":"inv_f6d026","clusterId":"sig_94107c","watchId":"wat_house","claim":"Project X withdrawals not going through for me either. Pending for over an hour now.","createdAt":"2026-09-30T18:39:26.813Z","finishedAt":"2026-09-30T18:39:53.646Z","status":"complete","maxBudgetUsd":1.1,"estimateUsd":0.036679,"spentUsd":0.027432,"balanceBefore":54.228874,"balanceAfter":54.201444,"keyPrefix":"sk-orbio-6lPABl","contract":{"task":"Verify the emerging claim: \"Project X withdrawals not going through for me either. Pending for over an hour now.\"","deadlineSec":120,"successConditions":["identify the earliest known source","return at least 2 independent evidence items if available","label each source as supports / contradicts / context","state the material unknowns","return the structured artifact, citing only real posts and fetched documents"]},"trigger":{"score":0.97,"mentions":9,"uniqueSources":4,"last15":9,"prev15":0},"auctions":[{"role":"source-tracer","bids":[{"bidder":"tracer-haiku","label":"Claude Haiku 4.5","model":"anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5","bidUsd":0.004732,"worstUsd":0.007132,"reputation":0.8,"jobs":0,"eligible":true,"utility":169},{"bidder":"tracer-flash-lite","label":"Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite","model":"google/gemini-2.5-flash-lite","bidUsd":0.000442,"worstUsd":0.000593,"reputation":0.976,"jobs":34,"eligible":true,"utility":2208},{"bidder":"tracer-mistral","label":"Mistral Small 3.2","model":"mistralai/mistral-small-3.2-24b-instruct","bidUsd":0.000406,"worstUsd":0.000406,"reputation":0.533,"jobs":1,"eligible":false,"utility":null}],"winner":"tracer-flash-lite","reason":"best quality per dollar: reputation 0.98 for a $0.0004 bid"},{"role":"cross-checker","bids":[{"bidder":"checker-haiku","label":"Claude Haiku 4.5","model":"anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5","bidUsd":0.0114,"worstUsd":0.0114,"reputation":0.898,"jobs":28,"eligible":true,"utility":79},{"bidder":"checker-flash-lite","label":"Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite","model":"google/gemini-2.5-flash-lite","bidUsd":0.00099,"worstUsd":0.00099,"reputation":0.533,"jobs":1,"eligible":false,"utility":null},{"bidder":"checker-mistral","label":"Mistral Small 3.2","model":"mistralai/mistral-small-3.2-24b-instruct","bidUsd":0.000741,"worstUsd":0.000741,"reputation":0.728,"jobs":6,"eligible":false,"utility":null}],"winner":"checker-haiku","reason":"best quality per dollar: reputation 0.90 for a $0.0114 bid"},{"role":"verifier","bids":[{"bidder":"verifier-sonnet","label":"Claude Sonnet 5","model":"anthropic/claude-sonnet-5","bidUsd":0.017052,"worstUsd":0.024686,"reputation":0.989,"jobs":33,"eligible":true,"utility":58}],"winner":"verifier-sonnet","reason":"the verifier is appointed, not auctioned"}],"workers":[{"id":"source-tracer","role":"traces the origin and splits the narrative into sub-claims","bidder":"tracer-flash-lite","label":"Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite","model":"google/gemini-2.5-flash-lite","status":"done","estimateUsd":0.000442,"costUsd":0.000387,"startedAt":"2026-09-30T18:39:27.039Z","finishedAt":"2026-09-30T18:39:31.675Z","error":null,"completionTokens":704,"latencyMs":2469,"grade":{"quality":0.85,"notes":["named the true earliest post","100% of citations are real posts","100% of sub-claims start where they first appear","needed a retry after a cut-off or off-schema answer"],"reputationBefore":0.976,"reputationAfter":0.973},"retried":true},{"id":"cross-checker","role":"checks each sub-claim against official sources and linked pages","bidder":"checker-haiku","label":"Claude Haiku 4.5","model":"anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5","status":"done","estimateUsd":0.0114,"costUsd":0.007987,"startedAt":"2026-09-30T18:39:31.729Z","finishedAt":"2026-09-30T18:39:41.854Z","error":null,"completionTokens":1341,"latencyMs":9777,"grade":{"quality":0.875,"notes":["100% of citations are fetched documents","75% of quotes appear word for word","assessed 9 of 9 sub-claims"],"reputationBefore":0.898,"reputationAfter":0.897}},{"id":"verifier","role":"combines both reports into a calibrated finding","bidder":"verifier-sonnet","label":"Claude Sonnet 5","model":"anthropic/claude-sonnet-5","status":"done","estimateUsd":0.017052,"costUsd":0.019058,"startedAt":"2026-09-30T18:39:41.855Z","finishedAt":"2026-09-30T18:39:53.432Z","error":null,"completionTokens":863,"latencyMs":11330,"grade":{"quality":1,"notes":["7 of 7 acceptance checks passed"],"reputationBefore":0.989,"reputationAfter":0.989}}],"evidence":[{"ref":"E1","name":"Project X status page: Project X status","url":"https://hunch-agent.up.railway.app/demo/projectx/status","kind":"official","ok":true,"excerpt":"Project X system status\nTrading Operational\nDeposits Operational\nWithdrawals Degraded: scheduled maintenance\nSecurity incidents None reported\nIncident history\nUpdate, 2026-09-30 18:18 UTC\nThe hot-wallet migration is in progress. Withdrawals are queued and will be processed in order once maintenance completes, expected by 2026-09-30 19:43 UTC. Deposits and trading are not affected. There has been no security incident and no user funds are at risk.\nMaintenance started, 2026-09-30 17:43 UTC\nScheduled maintenance has begun. Withdrawals may be delayed for up to two hours while we migrate our hot-wallet infrastructure.\nMaintenance was announced on 2026-09-29 16:38 UTC. See announcements .","error":null},{"ref":"E2","name":"Project X announcements: Project X announcements","url":"https://hunch-agent.up.railway.app/demo/projectx/announcements","kind":"official","ok":true,"excerpt":"Project X announcements\nScheduled maintenance: hot-wallet migration\nPosted 2026-09-29 16:38 UTC by the Project X team\nOn 2026-09-30 17:43 UTC we will migrate our hot wallets to new infrastructure. Deposits and trading are unaffected. Withdrawals requested during the window will be queued for up to two hours and processed in order afterwards.\nWe will never ask you to move your funds or send them anywhere. Follow the status page for live updates.","error":null}],"artifact":{"claim":"Project X withdrawals are pending/stuck for extended periods (up to ~2 hours), with the narrative escalating to claims of a possible exploit, drained funds, or frozen/halted withdrawals due to a security incident.","status":"partially_supported","confidence":0.85,"origin":{"ref":"P1","url":"https://hunch-agent.up.railway.app/demo/posts/f1","source":"Project X community forum (demo)","firstSeen":"2026-09-30T18:38:53.000Z"},"finding":["Withdrawal delays are real and confirmed by Project X's official status page, attributed to scheduled hot-wallet migration maintenance with a stated up-to-2-hour window.","The severe sub-claims driving virality and funding — exploit, drain, frozen funds, security incident — are explicitly contradicted by official sources, which state no security incident occurred and no funds are at risk.","The mild/firsthand claim (withdrawals pending, up to ~1-2 hrs) matches official maintenance timeline; the alarming framing is speculation, not confirmed fact."],"evidenceFor":[{"ref":"E1","url":"https://hunch-agent.up.railway.app/demo/projectx/status","source":"Project X status page: Project X status","finding":"Status page confirms withdrawals degraded due to scheduled maintenance, queued and expected to clear within a 2-hour window."},{"ref":"P1","url":"https://hunch-agent.up.railway.app/demo/posts/f1","source":"Project X community forum (demo)","finding":"Earliest firsthand report establishes withdrawals pending 40 minutes, consistent with maintenance timeline."}],"evidenceAgainst":[{"ref":"E2","url":"https://hunch-agent.up.railway.app/demo/projectx/announcements","source":"Project X announcements: Project X announcements","finding":"Official announcement states 'no security incident and no user funds are at risk,' directly contradicting exploit/drain speculation in P6 and P7."},{"ref":"E1","url":"https://hunch-agent.up.railway.app/demo/projectx/status","source":"Project X status page: Project X status","finding":"Status page shows 'Security incidents: None reported,' undermining claims that withdrawals are halted due to a hack."}],"unknowns":["Whether support has responded to individual user inquiries (P3) is not addressed by official documents.","Whether all reported delays (e.g., P9's 2-hour pending) fall within or exceed the stated maintenance window is not fully confirmed.","No independent verification of Project X's own claim of 'no security incident' beyond their own status page/announcement."],"recommendedAction":"alert","rationale":"The core mild claim (withdrawals delayed) is accurate and explained by legitimate maintenance, but the narrative is spreading with unverified severe claims (exploit, drain, halt due to hack) that are explicitly contradicted by official sources. Given the high mention velocity (9 in 15 min) and severity terms driving fear, an alert to the operator is warranted so a public clarification referencing the official maintenance status page can be issued to curb panic, though this does not yet rise to an urgent escalation since the underlying official explanation is available and no evidence supports actual fund loss."},"acceptance":{"accepted":true,"checks":[{"label":"Fits the schema","ok":true,"detail":"parsed and validated"},{"label":"Origin is a real post","ok":true,"detail":"origin P1"},{"label":"Every citation exists","ok":true,"detail":"4 citations, all real"},{"label":"Two independent evidence items","ok":true,"detail":"3 distinct sources cited (11 available)"},{"label":"Uncertainty stated","ok":true,"detail":"confidence 0.85, 3 unknowns"},{"label":"Status matches evidence","ok":true,"detail":"partially_supported with 2 for / 2 against"},{"label":"Confidence in range","ok":true,"detail":"0.85"}]},"alert":{"channel":"dashboard","sent":true,"detail":"Telegram not configured; shown on the dashboard"},"error":null,"demo":true}],"spend":[{"id":"sp_d43a8d","at":"2026-10-01T12:57:42.198Z","investigationId":"inv_565125","workerId":"verifier","bidder":"verifier-sonnet","model":"anthropic/claude-sonnet-5","purpose":"combines both reports into a calibrated finding","promptTokens":5279,"completionTokens":809,"costUsd":0.018648,"costSource":"gateway","watchId":"wat_house","keyPrefix":"sk-orbio-zlq_y3","balanceBefore":53.635727,"balanceAfter":53.617079},{"id":"sp_0cdc6f","at":"2026-10-01T12:57:32.550Z","investigationId":"inv_565125","workerId":"cross-checker","bidder":"checker-haiku","model":"anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5","purpose":"checks each sub-claim against official sources and linked 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finding","promptTokens":6050,"completionTokens":936,"costUsd":0.02146,"costSource":"gateway","watchId":"wat_house","keyPrefix":"sk-orbio-t8blnX","balanceBefore":54.307254,"balanceAfter":54.285794}],"log":[{"at":"2026-10-01T12:57:43.713Z","actor":"KEY","msg":"rotated sk-orbio-zlq_y3… → sk-orbio-zlq_y3… (policy: fresh key after every investigation (inv_565125)) [Orbio reported no key to replace] · old key → HTTP 200 STILL ANSWERS · new key → HTTP 200 · balance 53.617079 → 53.617079 (credit unchanged)"},{"at":"2026-10-01T12:57:42.682Z","actor":"ALERT","msg":"dashboard: Telegram not configured; shown on the dashboard"},{"at":"2026-10-01T12:57:42.682Z","actor":"SPEND","msg":"inv_565125 total: metered $0.0273 · balance moved $0.0273 · allocation was $1.1000"},{"at":"2026-10-01T12:57:42.682Z","actor":"BALANCE","msg":"after inv_565125: 53.617079"},{"at":"2026-10-01T12:57:42.446Z","actor":"VERIFIER","msg":"accepted the artifact: PARTIALLY SUPPORTED at 75%, recommend alert"},{"at":"2026-10-01T12:57:42.446Z","actor":"MARKET","msg":"verifier-sonnet graded 1.00 (7 of 7 acceptance checks passed) · reputation 0.99 → 0.99","data":{"investigationId":"inv_565125"}},{"at":"2026-10-01T12:57:42.446Z","actor":"SPEND","msg":"verifier · anthropic/claude-sonnet-5 · 5279+809 tokens · $0.0186 (gateway) · balance 53.635727 → 53.617079","data":{"investigationId":"inv_565125"}},{"at":"2026-10-01T12:57:33.019Z","actor":"WORKER","msg":"verifier (verifier-sonnet, Claude Sonnet 5) started: combines both reports into a calibrated finding (bid $0.0171, $1.0914 left)"},{"at":"2026-10-01T12:57:33.019Z","actor":"MARKET","msg":"checker-haiku graded 0.91 (100% of citations are fetched documents; 82% of quotes appear word for word; assessed 11 of 11 sub-claims) · reputation 0.91 → 0.91","data":{"investigationId":"inv_565125"}},{"at":"2026-10-01T12:57:33.019Z","actor":"WORKER","msg":"cross-checker done: 1 supports, 5 contradicts, 5 context; 4 gaps"},{"at":"2026-10-01T12:57:33.018Z","actor":"SPEND","msg":"cross-checker · anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5 · 1274+1382 tokens · $0.0082 (gateway) · balance 53.643911 → 53.635727","data":{"investigationId":"inv_565125"}},{"at":"2026-10-01T12:57:22.857Z","actor":"WORKER","msg":"cross-checker (checker-haiku, Claude Haiku 4.5) started: checks each sub-claim against official sources and linked pages (bid $0.0112, $1.0996 left)"},{"at":"2026-10-01T12:57:22.856Z","actor":"WORKER","msg":"cross-checker fetched 2/2 documents over HTTP ($0): E1 Project X status page: Project X status · E2 Project X announcements: Project X announcements"},{"at":"2026-10-01T12:57:22.804Z","actor":"MARKET","msg":"tracer-flash-lite graded 1.00 (named the true earliest post; 100% of citations are real posts; 100% of sub-claims start where they first appear) · reputation 0.97 → 0.97","data":{"investigationId":"inv_565125"}},{"at":"2026-10-01T12:57:22.803Z","actor":"WORKER","msg":"source-tracer done: origin P1, 11 sub-claims, 5 firsthand sources"},{"at":"2026-10-01T12:57:22.803Z","actor":"SPEND","msg":"source-tracer · google/gemini-2.5-flash-lite · 1050+798 tokens · $0.0004 (gateway) · balance 53.644335 → 53.643911","data":{"investigationId":"inv_565125"}},{"at":"2026-10-01T12:57:19.280Z","actor":"WORKER","msg":"source-tracer (tracer-flash-lite, Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite) started: traces the origin and splits the narrative into sub-claims (bid $0.0004, $1.1000 left)"},{"at":"2026-10-01T12:57:19.280Z","actor":"BALANCE","msg":"before inv_565125: 53.644335 (orbio_get_balance)"},{"at":"2026-10-01T12:57:19.008Z","actor":"MARKET","msg":"cross-checker auction: checker-haiku $0.0112 @ 0.91 wins over checker-flash-lite $0.0010 @ 0.53 (below floor), checker-mistral $0.0007 @ 0.73 (below floor); best quality per dollar: reputation 0.91 for a $0.0112 bid","data":{"investigationId":"inv_565125"}},{"at":"2026-10-01T12:57:19.008Z","actor":"MARKET","msg":"source-tracer auction: tracer-flash-lite $0.0004 @ 0.97 wins over tracer-haiku $0.0047 @ 0.80, tracer-mistral $0.0004 @ 0.53 (below floor); best quality per dollar: reputation 0.97 for a $0.0004 bid","data":{"investigationId":"inv_565125"}},{"at":"2026-10-01T12:57:19.008Z","actor":"BUDGET","msg":"approved inv_565125: up to $1.1000 (worst case $0.0367); reserve $1.4667 stays untouched","data":{"investigationId":"inv_565125"}},{"at":"2026-10-01T12:57:19.008Z","actor":"COORDINATOR","msg":"worth buying certainty: 9 mentions in 15 min + 4 independent sources + severity terms (exploit, drained, halted) · allocating up to $1.10","data":{"clusterId":"sig_7c4ee8"}},{"at":"2026-10-01T12:57:19.008Z","actor":"SIGNAL","msg":"sig_7c4ee8 \"Project X withdrawals not going through for me either. Pending for over an hour \" · 9 mentions · 4 sources · 9 in 15m · score 0.97 → INVESTIGATE","data":{"clusterId":"sig_7c4ee8"}},{"at":"2026-10-01T12:57:19.008Z","actor":"SIGNAL","msg":"1 cluster(s) off mission → IGNORE, $0 (highest: NaN, 0 mentions: \"Cronos v1.8 looks like much more than just a speed upgrade. \")"},{"at":"2026-10-01T12:57:18.053Z","actor":"WATCHER","msg":"demo wave 3: 127 items from 8/8 sources, 6 new, embedded locally ($0)"},{"at":"2026-10-01T12:57:17.979Z","actor":"DEMO","msg":"wave 3: released 5 planted posts on News blog (demo), Chat group (demo), Social feed (demo), Project X community forum (demo)"},{"at":"2026-10-01T12:57:03.026Z","actor":"COORDINATOR","msg":"score 0.57 is worth watching but not paying for yet","data":{"clusterId":"sig_7c4ee8"}},{"at":"2026-10-01T12:57:03.026Z","actor":"SIGNAL","msg":"sig_7c4ee8 \"Withdrawal stuck? Is anyone else's Project X withdrawal stuck? Mine has been pen\" · 4 mentions · 3 sources · 4 in 15m · score 0.57 → WATCH","data":{"clusterId":"sig_7c4ee8"}},{"at":"2026-10-01T12:57:02.121Z","actor":"WATCHER","msg":"demo wave 2: 122 items from 8/8 sources, 3 new, embedded locally ($0)"},{"at":"2026-10-01T12:57:02.055Z","actor":"DEMO","msg":"wave 2: released 3 planted posts on Social feed (demo), Project X community forum (demo), Chat group (demo)"},{"at":"2026-10-01T12:56:46.907Z","actor":"COORDINATOR","msg":"score 0.21 is below 0.55: noise, spend nothing","data":{"clusterId":"sig_7c4ee8"}},{"at":"2026-10-01T12:56:46.907Z","actor":"SIGNAL","msg":"sig_7c4ee8 \"Withdrawal stuck? Is anyone else's Project X withdrawal stuck? Mine has been pen\" · 1 mentions · 1 sources · 1 in 15m · score 0.21 → IGNORE","data":{"clusterId":"sig_7c4ee8"}},{"at":"2026-10-01T12:56:46.195Z","actor":"WATCHER","msg":"demo wave 1: 119 items from 8/8 sources, 1 new, embedded locally ($0)"},{"at":"2026-10-01T12:56:46.114Z","actor":"DEMO","msg":"wave 1: released 1 planted post on Project X community forum (demo)"},{"at":"2026-10-01T12:56:46.113Z","actor":"DEMO","msg":"fixture run 02c6b2: planted posts about the fictional Project X, released in 3 waves. Not organic."},{"at":"2026-10-01T12:51:26.732Z","actor":"SIGNAL","msg":"2 cluster(s) off mission → IGNORE, $0 (highest: 0.11, 1 mentions: \"Price Increases for 2GB Raspberry Pi 4 and Raspberry Pi 5. Article URL\")"},{"at":"2026-10-01T12:51:25.912Z","actor":"WATCHER","msg":"scheduled scan: 127 items from 8/8 sources, 2 new, embedded locally ($0)"},{"at":"2026-10-01T12:36:30.262Z","actor":"SIGNAL","msg":"2 cluster(s) off mission → IGNORE, $0 (highest: 0.26, 3 mentions: \"Here’s what happened in crypto today. Need to know what happened in cr\")"},{"at":"2026-10-01T12:36:29.573Z","actor":"WATCHER","msg":"scheduled scan: 135 items from 8/8 sources, 2 new, embedded locally ($0)"},{"at":"2026-10-01T12:36:29.565Z","actor":"WATCHER","msg":"searched for 0xperceptor: 4 results for \"0xperceptor\" · $0.0044 from its own budget"},{"at":"2026-10-01T12:36:29.067Z","actor":"WATCHER","msg":"searched for HUNCH Path Check: 4 results for \"HUNCH Path Check\" · $0.0044 from its own budget"},{"at":"2026-10-01T12:21:25.115Z","actor":"SIGNAL","msg":"1 cluster(s) off mission → IGNORE, $0 (highest: 0.15, 1 mentions: \"The U.S. Dollar Index just hit its highest level in 17 months. \")"},{"at":"2026-10-01T12:21:24.133Z","actor":"WATCHER","msg":"scheduled scan: 127 items from 8/8 sources, 1 new, embedded locally ($0)"},{"at":"2026-10-01T12:06:25.559Z","actor":"SIGNAL","msg":"1 cluster(s) off mission → IGNORE, $0 (highest: 0.11, 1 mentions: \"Returning from vacation? The government can search your phone without \")"},{"at":"2026-10-01T12:06:24.670Z","actor":"WATCHER","msg":"scheduled scan: 126 items from 8/8 sources, 1 new, embedded locally ($0)"},{"at":"2026-10-01T11:51:25.875Z","actor":"WATCHER","msg":"scheduled scan: 126 items from 8/8 sources, 0 new, embedded locally ($0)"},{"at":"2026-10-01T11:36:26.295Z","actor":"SIGNAL","msg":"2 cluster(s) off mission → IGNORE, $0 (highest: 0.12, 1 mentions: \"Multi-connectivity for real-time streaming over Wi-Fi. Article URL: ht\")"},{"at":"2026-10-01T11:36:24.823Z","actor":"WATCHER","msg":"scheduled scan: 126 items from 8/8 sources, 2 new, embedded locally ($0)"},{"at":"2026-10-01T11:21:24.059Z","actor":"WATCHER","msg":"scheduled scan: 126 items from 8/8 sources, 0 new, embedded locally ($0)"},{"at":"2026-10-01T11:06:25.986Z","actor":"SIGNAL","msg":"2 cluster(s) off mission → IGNORE, $0 (highest: 0.11, 1 mentions: \"Tokenized assets don’t always mirror traditional markets, Dune finds. \")"},{"at":"2026-10-01T11:06:25.986Z","actor":"KEY","msg":"orbio_create_key → claimed sk-orbio-zlq_y3… (replacing a key retired elsewhere)"},{"at":"2026-10-01T11:06:25.559Z","actor":"KEY","msg":"orbio_get_key_status shows no key, not sk-orbio-6lPABl…: the key was retired outside the agent; claiming a fresh one"},{"at":"2026-10-01T11:06:24.756Z","actor":"WATCHER","msg":"scheduled scan: 126 items from 8/8 sources, 2 new, embedded locally ($0)"},{"at":"2026-10-01T10:51:32.208Z","actor":"SIGNAL","msg":"1 cluster(s) off mission → IGNORE, $0 (highest: 0.34, 6 mentions: \"Bitcoin Hovers at $84K as Treasury Yields Hold Near Multi-Year Highs. \")"},{"at":"2026-10-01T10:51:31.394Z","actor":"WATCHER","msg":"scheduled scan: 127 items from 8/8 sources, 1 new, embedded locally ($0)"},{"at":"2026-10-01T10:45:55.487Z","actor":"WATCHER","msg":"manual scan: 127 items from 8/8 sources, 0 new, embedded locally ($0)"},{"at":"2026-10-01T10:36:24.960Z","actor":"SIGNAL","msg":"1 cluster(s) off mission → IGNORE, $0 (highest: 0.12, 1 mentions: \"Jacques Barzun, Cultural historian and critic (1980). Article URL: htt\")"},{"at":"2026-10-01T10:36:24.240Z","actor":"WATCHER","msg":"scheduled scan: 127 items from 8/8 sources, 1 new, embedded locally ($0)"},{"at":"2026-10-01T10:21:25.802Z","actor":"SIGNAL","msg":"1 cluster(s) off mission → IGNORE, $0 (highest: 0.24, 2 mentions: \"Binance’s EU services face scrutiny over licensing exemption: Report. \")"},{"at":"2026-10-01T10:21:24.298Z","actor":"WATCHER","msg":"scheduled scan: 127 items from 8/8 sources, 1 new, embedded locally ($0)"},{"at":"2026-10-01T10:06:25.034Z","actor":"SIGNAL","msg":"1 cluster(s) off mission → IGNORE, $0 (highest: 0.11, 1 mentions: \"Truemetrics (YC S23) Is Hiring a GTM Founder's Associate. Article URL:\")"},{"at":"2026-10-01T10:06:24.111Z","actor":"WATCHER","msg":"scheduled scan: 128 items from 8/8 sources, 1 new, embedded locally ($0)"},{"at":"2026-10-01T09:51:25.106Z","actor":"SIGNAL","msg":"1 cluster(s) off mission → IGNORE, $0 (highest: 0.29, 4 mentions: \"MetaMask exits Ethereum validators amid undisclosed security incident.\")"},{"at":"2026-10-01T09:51:24.242Z","actor":"WATCHER","msg":"scheduled scan: 128 items from 8/8 sources, 1 new, embedded locally ($0)"},{"at":"2026-10-01T09:46:18.429Z","actor":"WATCHER","msg":"manual scan: 128 items from 8/8 sources, 0 new, embedded locally ($0)"},{"at":"2026-10-01T09:40:57.536Z","actor":"WATCHER","msg":"manual scan: 128 items from 8/8 sources, 0 new, embedded locally ($0)"},{"at":"2026-10-01T09:36:25.059Z","actor":"SIGNAL","msg":"1 cluster(s) off mission → IGNORE, $0 (highest: 0.11, 1 mentions: \"Singapore govt dating app uses Gale-Shapley stable marriage algorithm.\")"},{"at":"2026-10-01T09:36:24.272Z","actor":"WATCHER","msg":"scheduled scan: 128 items from 8/8 sources, 1 new, embedded locally ($0)"},{"at":"2026-10-01T09:21:24.774Z","actor":"SIGNAL","msg":"1 cluster(s) off mission → IGNORE, $0 (highest: 0.14, 1 mentions: \"Chainalysis beats most Celsius claims, but ‘audit’ lawsuit survives. C\")"},{"at":"2026-10-01T09:21:24.084Z","actor":"WATCHER","msg":"scheduled scan: 128 items from 8/8 sources, 1 new, embedded locally ($0)"},{"at":"2026-10-01T09:06:26.401Z","actor":"SIGNAL","msg":"1 cluster(s) off mission → IGNORE, $0 (highest: 0.13, 1 mentions: \"EU Presses Binance Over ‘Reverse Solicitation’ Exemption for Users: Re\")"},{"at":"2026-10-01T09:06:24.933Z","actor":"WATCHER","msg":"scheduled scan: 128 items from 8/8 sources, 1 new, embedded locally ($0)"},{"at":"2026-10-01T08:51:23.435Z","actor":"WATCHER","msg":"scheduled scan: 128 items from 8/8 sources, 0 new, embedded locally ($0)"},{"at":"2026-10-01T08:48:21.093Z","actor":"WATCHER","msg":"manual scan: 128 items from 8/8 sources, 0 new, embedded locally ($0)"},{"at":"2026-10-01T08:36:26.861Z","actor":"WATCHER","msg":"scheduled scan: 136 items from 8/8 sources, 0 new, embedded locally ($0)"},{"at":"2026-10-01T08:36:26.860Z","actor":"WATCHER","msg":"searched for 0xperceptor: 4 results for \"0xperceptor\" · $0.0044 from its own budget"},{"at":"2026-10-01T08:36:26.372Z","actor":"WATCHER","msg":"searched for HUNCH Path Check: 4 results for \"HUNCH Path Check\" · $0.0044 from its own budget"},{"at":"2026-10-01T08:21:24.748Z","actor":"WATCHER","msg":"scheduled scan: 129 items from 8/8 sources, 0 new, embedded locally ($0)"},{"at":"2026-10-01T08:06:24.224Z","actor":"WATCHER","msg":"scheduled scan: 129 items from 8/8 sources, 0 new, embedded locally ($0)"},{"at":"2026-10-01T07:51:25.862Z","actor":"WATCHER","msg":"scheduled scan: 129 items from 8/8 sources, 0 new, embedded locally ($0)"},{"at":"2026-10-01T07:39:07.493Z","actor":"WATCHER","msg":"manual scan: 129 items from 8/8 sources, 0 new, embedded locally ($0)"},{"at":"2026-10-01T07:36:57.632Z","actor":"WATCHER","msg":"manual scan: 129 items from 8/8 sources, 0 new, embedded locally ($0)"},{"at":"2026-10-01T07:36:24.908Z","actor":"SIGNAL","msg":"1 cluster(s) off mission → IGNORE, $0 (highest: 0.34, 6 mentions: \"Crypto ETFs Surge as Bitcoin Funds Add $2.95 Billion in 30 Days. Bitco\")"},{"at":"2026-10-01T07:36:24.042Z","actor":"WATCHER","msg":"scheduled scan: 129 items from 8/8 sources, 1 new, embedded locally ($0)"},{"at":"2026-10-01T07:21:24.142Z","actor":"WATCHER","msg":"scheduled scan: 129 items from 8/8 sources, 0 new, embedded locally ($0)"},{"at":"2026-10-01T07:06:24.719Z","actor":"WATCHER","msg":"scheduled scan: 129 items from 8/8 sources, 0 new, embedded locally ($0)"},{"at":"2026-10-01T06:51:26.869Z","actor":"WATCHER","msg":"scheduled scan: 129 items from 8/8 sources, 0 new, embedded locally ($0)"},{"at":"2026-10-01T06:36:24.243Z","actor":"WATCHER","msg":"scheduled scan: 130 items from 8/8 sources, 0 new, embedded locally ($0)"},{"at":"2026-10-01T06:27:16.669Z","actor":"WATCHER","msg":"manual scan: 130 items from 8/8 sources, 0 new, embedded locally ($0)"},{"at":"2026-10-01T06:21:24.814Z","actor":"SIGNAL","msg":"3 cluster(s) off mission → IGNORE, $0 (highest: 0.12, 1 mentions: \"Suits Are Better Tech Than Modern Clothes. Article URL: https://devz.c\")"},{"at":"2026-10-01T06:21:24.047Z","actor":"WATCHER","msg":"scheduled scan: 130 items from 8/8 sources, 3 new, embedded locally ($0)"},{"at":"2026-10-01T06:06:24.024Z","actor":"WATCHER","msg":"scheduled scan: 130 items from 8/8 sources, 0 new, embedded locally ($0)"},{"at":"2026-10-01T05:51:26.607Z","actor":"SIGNAL","msg":"1 cluster(s) off mission → IGNORE, $0 (highest: 0.11, 1 mentions: \"Is sandboxing sufficient to contain rogue agents? Article URL: https:/\")"},{"at":"2026-10-01T05:51:25.859Z","actor":"WATCHER","msg":"scheduled scan: 131 items from 8/8 sources, 1 new, embedded locally ($0)"},{"at":"2026-10-01T05:36:45.359Z","actor":"KEY","msg":"rotated sk-orbio-6lPABl… → sk-orbio-6lPABl… (policy: fresh key after every investigation (inv_36d220)) [Orbio reported no key to replace] · old key → HTTP 200 STILL ANSWERS · new key → HTTP 200 · balance 53.922447 → 53.922447 (credit unchanged)"},{"at":"2026-10-01T05:36:44.275Z","actor":"ALERT","msg":"dashboard: Telegram not configured; shown on the dashboard"},{"at":"2026-10-01T05:36:44.275Z","actor":"SPEND","msg":"inv_36d220 total: metered $0.0245 · balance moved $0.0245 · allocation was $1.1000"},{"at":"2026-10-01T05:36:44.275Z","actor":"BALANCE","msg":"after inv_36d220: 53.922447"},{"at":"2026-10-01T05:36:44.094Z","actor":"VERIFIER","msg":"accepted the artifact: PARTIALLY SUPPORTED at 55%, recommend alert"},{"at":"2026-10-01T05:36:44.094Z","actor":"MARKET","msg":"verifier-sonnet graded 1.00 (7 of 7 acceptance checks passed) · reputation 0.99 → 0.99","data":{"investigationId":"inv_36d220"}},{"at":"2026-10-01T05:36:44.094Z","actor":"SPEND","msg":"verifier · anthropic/claude-sonnet-5 · 4921+774 tokens · $0.0176 (gateway) · balance 53.940029 → 53.922447","data":{"investigationId":"inv_36d220"}},{"at":"2026-10-01T05:36:35.055Z","actor":"WORKER","msg":"verifier (verifier-sonnet, Claude Sonnet 5) started: combines both reports into a calibrated finding (bid $0.0171, $1.0931 left)"},{"at":"2026-10-01T05:36:35.055Z","actor":"MARKET","msg":"checker-haiku graded 0.93 (100% of citations are fetched documents; 86% of quotes appear word for word; assessed 9 of 9 sub-claims) · reputation 0.91 → 0.91","data":{"investigationId":"inv_36d220"}},{"at":"2026-10-01T05:36:35.055Z","actor":"WORKER","msg":"cross-checker done: 1 supports, 4 contradicts, 2 context; 4 gaps"},{"at":"2026-10-01T05:36:35.054Z","actor":"SPEND","msg":"cross-checker · anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5 · 1271+1053 tokens · $0.0065 (gateway) · balance 53.946565 → 53.940029","data":{"investigationId":"inv_36d220"}},{"at":"2026-10-01T05:36:26.938Z","actor":"WORKER","msg":"cross-checker (checker-haiku, Claude Haiku 4.5) started: checks each sub-claim against official sources and linked pages (bid $0.0112, $1.0996 left)"},{"at":"2026-10-01T05:36:26.937Z","actor":"WORKER","msg":"cross-checker fetched 2/2 documents over HTTP ($0): E1 Project X status page: Project X status · E2 Project X announcements: Project X announcements"},{"at":"2026-10-01T05:36:26.885Z","actor":"MARKET","msg":"tracer-flash-lite graded 1.00 (named the true earliest post; 100% of citations are real posts; 100% of sub-claims start where they first appear) · reputation 0.97 → 0.97","data":{"investigationId":"inv_36d220"}},{"at":"2026-10-01T05:36:26.885Z","actor":"WORKER","msg":"source-tracer done: origin P1, 9 sub-claims, 7 firsthand sources"},{"at":"2026-10-01T05:36:26.885Z","actor":"SPEND","msg":"source-tracer · google/gemini-2.5-flash-lite · 1050+716 tokens · $0.0004 (gateway) · balance 53.946956 → 53.946565","data":{"investigationId":"inv_36d220"}},{"at":"2026-10-01T05:36:23.745Z","actor":"WORKER","msg":"source-tracer (tracer-flash-lite, Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite) started: traces the origin and splits the narrative into sub-claims (bid $0.0004, $1.1000 left)"},{"at":"2026-10-01T05:36:23.745Z","actor":"BALANCE","msg":"before inv_36d220: 53.946956 (orbio_get_balance)"},{"at":"2026-10-01T05:36:23.529Z","actor":"MARKET","msg":"cross-checker auction: checker-haiku $0.0112 @ 0.91 wins over checker-flash-lite $0.0010 @ 0.53 (below floor), checker-mistral $0.0007 @ 0.73 (below floor); best quality per dollar: reputation 0.91 for a $0.0112 bid","data":{"investigationId":"inv_36d220"}},{"at":"2026-10-01T05:36:23.529Z","actor":"MARKET","msg":"source-tracer auction: tracer-flash-lite $0.0004 @ 0.97 wins over tracer-haiku $0.0047 @ 0.80, tracer-mistral $0.0004 @ 0.53 (below floor); best quality per dollar: reputation 0.97 for a $0.0004 bid","data":{"investigationId":"inv_36d220"}},{"at":"2026-10-01T05:36:23.529Z","actor":"BUDGET","msg":"approved inv_36d220: up to $1.1000 (worst case $0.0367); reserve $1.4667 stays untouched","data":{"investigationId":"inv_36d220"}},{"at":"2026-10-01T05:36:23.529Z","actor":"COORDINATOR","msg":"worth buying certainty: 9 mentions in 15 min + 4 independent sources + severity terms (exploit, drained, halted) · allocating up to $1.10","data":{"clusterId":"sig_3274ad"}},{"at":"2026-10-01T05:36:23.529Z","actor":"SIGNAL","msg":"sig_3274ad \"Project X withdrawals not going through for me either. Pending for over an hour \" · 9 mentions · 4 sources · 9 in 15m · score 0.97 → INVESTIGATE","data":{"clusterId":"sig_3274ad"}},{"at":"2026-10-01T05:36:22.806Z","actor":"WATCHER","msg":"demo wave 3: 131 items from 8/8 sources, 5 new, embedded locally ($0)"},{"at":"2026-10-01T05:36:22.737Z","actor":"DEMO","msg":"wave 3: released 5 planted posts on News blog (demo), Chat group (demo), Social feed (demo), Project X community forum (demo)"},{"at":"2026-10-01T05:36:07.007Z","actor":"COORDINATOR","msg":"score 0.57 is worth watching but not paying for yet","data":{"clusterId":"sig_3274ad"}},{"at":"2026-10-01T05:36:07.007Z","actor":"SIGNAL","msg":"sig_3274ad \"Withdrawal stuck? Is anyone else's Project X withdrawal stuck? Mine has been pen\" · 4 mentions · 3 sources · 4 in 15m · score 0.57 → WATCH","data":{"clusterId":"sig_3274ad"}},{"at":"2026-10-01T05:36:06.340Z","actor":"WATCHER","msg":"demo wave 2: 126 items from 8/8 sources, 3 new, embedded locally ($0)"},{"at":"2026-10-01T05:36:06.228Z","actor":"DEMO","msg":"wave 2: released 3 planted posts on Social feed (demo), Project X community forum (demo), Chat group (demo)"},{"at":"2026-10-01T05:35:50.130Z","actor":"COORDINATOR","msg":"score 0.21 is below 0.55: noise, spend nothing","data":{"clusterId":"sig_3274ad"}},{"at":"2026-10-01T05:35:50.130Z","actor":"SIGNAL","msg":"sig_3274ad \"Withdrawal stuck? Is anyone else's Project X withdrawal stuck? Mine has been pen\" · 1 mentions · 1 sources · 1 in 15m · score 0.21 → IGNORE","data":{"clusterId":"sig_3274ad"}},{"at":"2026-10-01T05:35:49.209Z","actor":"WATCHER","msg":"demo wave 1: 123 items from 8/8 sources, 1 new, embedded locally ($0)"},{"at":"2026-10-01T05:35:46.676Z","actor":"DEMO","msg":"wave 1: released 1 planted post on Project X community forum (demo)"},{"at":"2026-10-01T05:35:46.675Z","actor":"DEMO","msg":"fixture run 0df9eb: planted posts about the fictional Project X, released in 3 waves. Not organic."},{"at":"2026-10-01T05:22:27.574Z","actor":"KEY","msg":"rotated sk-orbio-6lPABl… → sk-orbio-6lPABl… (policy: fresh key after every investigation (inv_8c3305)) [Orbio reported no key to replace] · old key → HTTP 200 STILL ANSWERS · new key → HTTP 200 · balance 53.946956 → 53.946956 (credit unchanged)"},{"at":"2026-10-01T05:22:26.639Z","actor":"ALERT","msg":"dashboard: Telegram not configured; shown on the dashboard"},{"at":"2026-10-01T05:22:26.639Z","actor":"SPEND","msg":"inv_8c3305 total: metered $0.0278 · balance moved $0.0277 · allocation was $1.1000"},{"at":"2026-10-01T05:22:26.639Z","actor":"BALANCE","msg":"after inv_8c3305: 53.946956"},{"at":"2026-10-01T05:22:26.426Z","actor":"VERIFIER","msg":"accepted the artifact: PARTIALLY SUPPORTED at 55%, recommend alert"},{"at":"2026-10-01T05:22:26.426Z","actor":"MARKET","msg":"verifier-sonnet graded 1.00 (7 of 7 acceptance checks passed) · reputation 0.99 → 0.99","data":{"investigationId":"inv_8c3305"}},{"at":"2026-10-01T05:22:26.426Z","actor":"SPEND","msg":"verifier · anthropic/claude-sonnet-5 · 5257+908 tokens · $0.0196 (gateway) · balance 53.966550 → 53.946956","data":{"investigationId":"inv_8c3305"}},{"at":"2026-10-01T05:22:16.212Z","actor":"WORKER","msg":"verifier (verifier-sonnet, Claude Sonnet 5) started: combines both reports into a calibrated finding (bid $0.0171, $1.0918 left)"},{"at":"2026-10-01T05:22:16.212Z","actor":"MARKET","msg":"checker-haiku graded 0.91 (100% of citations are fetched documents; 82% of quotes appear word for word; assessed 11 of 11 sub-claims) · reputation 0.91 → 0.91","data":{"investigationId":"inv_8c3305"}},{"at":"2026-10-01T05:22:16.211Z","actor":"WORKER","msg":"cross-checker done: 1 supports, 6 contradicts, 4 context; 5 gaps"},{"at":"2026-10-01T05:22:16.211Z","actor":"SPEND","msg":"cross-checker · anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5 · 1265+1295 tokens · $0.0077 (gateway) · balance 53.974290 → 53.966550","data":{"investigationId":"inv_8c3305"}},{"at":"2026-10-01T05:22:06.221Z","actor":"WORKER","msg":"cross-checker (checker-haiku, Claude Haiku 4.5) started: checks each sub-claim against official sources and linked pages (bid $0.0113, $1.0996 left)"},{"at":"2026-10-01T05:22:06.220Z","actor":"WORKER","msg":"cross-checker fetched 2/2 documents over HTTP ($0): E1 Project X status page: Project X status · E2 Project X announcements: Project X announcements"},{"at":"2026-10-01T05:22:06.195Z","actor":"MARKET","msg":"tracer-flash-lite graded 1.00 (named the true earliest post; 100% of citations are real posts; 100% of sub-claims start where they first appear) · reputation 0.97 → 0.97","data":{"investigationId":"inv_8c3305"}},{"at":"2026-10-01T05:22:06.194Z","actor":"WORKER","msg":"source-tracer done: origin P1, 11 sub-claims, 5 firsthand sources"},{"at":"2026-10-01T05:22:06.194Z","actor":"SPEND","msg":"source-tracer · google/gemini-2.5-flash-lite · 1050+778 tokens · $0.0004 (gateway) · balance 53.974706 → 53.974290","data":{"investigationId":"inv_8c3305"}},{"at":"2026-10-01T05:22:03.463Z","actor":"WORKER","msg":"source-tracer (tracer-flash-lite, Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite) started: traces the origin and splits the narrative into sub-claims (bid $0.0004, $1.1000 left)"},{"at":"2026-10-01T05:22:03.462Z","actor":"BALANCE","msg":"before inv_8c3305: 53.974706 (orbio_get_balance)"},{"at":"2026-10-01T05:22:03.216Z","actor":"MARKET","msg":"cross-checker auction: checker-haiku $0.0113 @ 0.91 wins over checker-flash-lite $0.0010 @ 0.53 (below floor), checker-mistral $0.0007 @ 0.73 (below floor); best quality per dollar: reputation 0.91 for a $0.0113 bid","data":{"investigationId":"inv_8c3305"}},{"at":"2026-10-01T05:22:03.216Z","actor":"MARKET","msg":"source-tracer auction: tracer-flash-lite $0.0004 @ 0.97 wins over tracer-haiku $0.0047 @ 0.80, tracer-mistral $0.0004 @ 0.53 (below floor); best quality per dollar: reputation 0.97 for a $0.0004 bid","data":{"investigationId":"inv_8c3305"}},{"at":"2026-10-01T05:22:03.216Z","actor":"BUDGET","msg":"approved inv_8c3305: up to $1.1000 (worst case $0.0367); reserve $1.4667 stays untouched","data":{"investigationId":"inv_8c3305"}},{"at":"2026-10-01T05:22:03.215Z","actor":"COORDINATOR","msg":"worth buying certainty: 9 mentions in 15 min + 4 independent sources + severity terms (exploit, drained, halted) · allocating up to $1.10","data":{"clusterId":"sig_ba8d4b"}},{"at":"2026-10-01T05:22:03.215Z","actor":"SIGNAL","msg":"sig_ba8d4b \"Project X withdrawals not going through for me either. Pending for over an hour \" · 9 mentions · 4 sources · 9 in 15m · score 0.97 → INVESTIGATE","data":{"clusterId":"sig_ba8d4b"}},{"at":"2026-10-01T05:22:02.259Z","actor":"WATCHER","msg":"demo wave 3: 131 items from 8/8 sources, 5 new, embedded locally ($0)"},{"at":"2026-10-01T05:22:02.181Z","actor":"DEMO","msg":"wave 3: released 5 planted posts on News blog (demo), Chat group (demo), Social feed (demo), Project X community forum (demo)"},{"at":"2026-10-01T05:21:40.889Z","actor":"COORDINATOR","msg":"score 0.57 is worth watching but not paying for yet","data":{"clusterId":"sig_ba8d4b"}},{"at":"2026-10-01T05:21:40.889Z","actor":"SIGNAL","msg":"sig_ba8d4b \"Withdrawal stuck? Is anyone else's Project X withdrawal stuck? Mine has been pen\" · 4 mentions · 3 sources · 4 in 15m · score 0.57 → WATCH","data":{"clusterId":"sig_ba8d4b"}},{"at":"2026-10-01T05:21:39.701Z","actor":"WATCHER","msg":"demo wave 2: 126 items from 8/8 sources, 3 new, embedded locally ($0)"},{"at":"2026-10-01T05:21:39.637Z","actor":"DEMO","msg":"wave 2: released 3 planted posts on Social feed (demo), Project X community forum (demo), Chat group (demo)"},{"at":"2026-10-01T05:21:23.853Z","actor":"COORDINATOR","msg":"score 0.21 is below 0.55: noise, spend nothing","data":{"clusterId":"sig_ba8d4b"}},{"at":"2026-10-01T05:21:23.853Z","actor":"SIGNAL","msg":"sig_ba8d4b \"Withdrawal stuck? Is anyone else's Project X withdrawal stuck? Mine has been pen\" · 1 mentions · 1 sources · 1 in 15m · score 0.21 → IGNORE","data":{"clusterId":"sig_ba8d4b"}},{"at":"2026-10-01T05:21:23.080Z","actor":"WATCHER","msg":"demo wave 1: 123 items from 8/8 sources, 1 new, embedded locally ($0)"}]}